For almost the last year, we’ve been seeing reports from alarmists in effect saying “when the El Nino comes – this will prove its warmer and that will save the dead parrot”.
Source: WUWT
However, I’m now fairly confident that cooling is more likely than warming over the next few years and as I looked to see when we might begin to see cooling, a rather ironic scenario occurred to me:
- The alarmists all jumped for joy because the El Nino had arrived and they keep saying how big its going to be and how long its going to last – and so how much higher the temperatures will be at the Dead Parrot Talks.
- But, if we look at the diagram above, most anomalies don’t last that long and we are already a year into this one. It could end at any time!
- But the alarmists being alarmists have already convinced everyone that it will get warmer due to the El Nino – so everyone is expecting it to be warmer!
- What then happens if the El Nino ends in the next few months?
- And we start to see a bit of my expected cooling?
Not only have the alarmists said it will get warmer – they’ve said this year will be exceptionally warm due to the El Nino. What excuses could they give it is doesn’t now warm?
All those who are still gullible enough to believe the alarmists are expecting it be really warm. So even a bit of cooling – or just “more pause” – will be a TOTAL disaster for the dead parrot talks.
El Nino is a natural event, so if that’s all alarmists have got they are finished.
A sneak preview of a promo for the Dead Parrot Talks aka Paris climate pow-wow…
http://www.demotix.com/news/5264229/giant-dead-parrot-sculpture-monty-python-sketch-near-tower-bridge#media-5264159
I ought to have got used to the crazy non-sense of alarmists.
If they go around telling the world its gong to get hotter because of a natural El Nino – then if it gets hotter – the world says “that’s just El Nino”, but if it gets cooler they say “not only did they get El Nino wrong but they also must have got the global warming wrong”.
My contention has long been that solar variations alter the balance of El Nino relative to La Nina by changing global cloudiness through an alteration of the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles.
On that basis the warming effect from this El Nino should be weakened by the increase in global cloudiness that the Earthshine project confirms as having been in progress since about 2000.
Before I forget to reply, your website http://www.newclimatemodel.com/new-climate-model/ looks interesting.
… re model. I’m interested in the model because the one thing we know about the ice-age cycle is that the world is somehow sensitive to solar radiation at around latitude 65N.
I need to think about it.