Fig 13.2 The “Haseler gap” – the period of rapid temperature drop 8-12k after the beginning of the interglacial without significant drop in CO2
A couple of months ago, when I looked at the ice-age cycle I came across something I referred to as the “Haseler gap”. This appears to be a recurring major drop in temperatures (~4C) a fixed period after the inter-glacial starts.
I knew I didn’t want to know how close we were to this gap in the present inter-glacial, because it would inevitably suggest that “this was the end” for human civilisation – and with almost nothing any of us can do (except find a super-powerful way to heat the atmosphere – which we’ve singularly failed to do!!!), we are stuck with what the climate throws at us.
It would not be a question of how many millions die, but how many billions. And there would be nothing we could do about it.
Unfortunately, today, I was stupid to measure the period. It’s only a rough measurement but at 8-12k after the beginning of the interglacial, we are now already due for this “Haseler gap”.
The Haseler Gap – is a lack of knowledge
And remember, originally I used it as a joking name suggesting a “gap between the ears”. Because when I found it, I was trying to find a way to make CO2 control the climate (CO2 controlling plant growth and release of water vapour). Unfortunately, the Haseler gap blew that idea apart as CO2 could not be the single cause of changes in the climate. This left me without any good explanation for changes in global temperature. (Hence my investigation into pressure changes overview, calculations).
And now, something that I have never seen referred to before – so presumably unknown – and something which I personally cannot explain (except I have a hunch it is related to Milankovitch cycles) could result in a massive drop in temperature over a very short period (too short to know how quickly it could occur) at any time.
And let me be totally frank – because I have no idea what the “Haseler gap” is, I cannot even be certain it isn’t just a series of statistical aberrations which I have mistaken for “something”.
Worst case scenario
Assuming it is equally likely over a 4000 year period, and that we are half way through, then it could occur any time over the next 2000 years. This suggests that the highest chances of it occurring during the lifetime of a child born today is perhaps 1 in 20.
Note: This is just a preliminary post and a “back of the envelope calculation”. All this article shows is that this “Haseler gap” cooling event may be imminent – but there’s much better than a 95% chance that no on alive will witness it. (I hope)
Addendum: Another interpretation of the “Haseler gap”, is that the climate is stabilised during the inter-glacial by massive negative feedbacks which keep the global temperature stable. But that as we come out of the inter-glacial, the stabilising effect of the negative feedback disappears and that this allows relatively small forcings to cause massive cooling (but massive warming never happens except when already colder during a colder period). So, the “Haseler gap”, may not be so much “something” as the re-emergence of a chaotic climate with a high probability (in geological time-scales of 10s of thousands of years) of massive temperature changes.
This is an interesting post. Thanks for writing it up.
This idea is an example of the unfortunate mess that climate science is in as those fools claim that CO2 does everything. The fact is that CO2 does not control our climate — so let us get on with finding our what does control earth’s climate. We can’t even begin the search until we give up on the CO2 delusion.
Suppose, for the sake of argument, that science determined that this Haseler Gap effect was real and likely to happen soon; and most of mankind could agree with that assessment. Now what?
What could we do to mitigate a 4C drop in temperature? (about 7F for Americans) How bad would it be?
I would guess that the first thing we would need is tremendous, reliable, redundant, inexpensive electric power generation capability. I would hope that we would get serious about thorium-based nuclear power immediately. (we should do that anyway for many other reasons)
After power, I would guess that looking at housing would also help. Can we build housing that is easy to heat? (looks be damned)
After that, are we ready to help people move towards the equator? Can we solve the politics of that? Do we have the moral will to save billions of people?
And finally —- food. Can we grow food in an environment that is 4C cooler than it is now? Where? How? At what cost?
You know, it is well know that the interglacial period we are in now will end someday. Perhaps someday soon. So these ideas and concerns will have to be met someday. Can we figure out how to “colonize” a cold, glaciated earth? (should be easier than colonizing the moon)
…
On a personal note. Does this mean even more Yankees will move to Florida? Damn.
I cannot agree more about climate “science”. As I wrote it I was thinking “what if it were true, what if it did happen very quickly – what would people in 100 years say if the only person who noticed this was some blogger”? – and no doubt because of the global warming crap, not one academic would even consider it until it was impossible to ignore!
And yes, the way forward is to stop these mannian obsessive lies pushing the political correct idea of climate and to start treating the subject as a science: i.e. with an open mind.
The key to good science is that whilst trying to be right, we are prepared to be wrong. We accept being wrong is part of the way science advances.
That is inherent in the whole concept of proposing a hypothesis and testing it. I suppose, thinking about it that whole ethic is intended to depersonalise the subject and stop individuals feeling that they are being judged by the experiment.
A real climate scientist mustn’t focus on whether the temperature goes up or down, but instead they must focus on making the measurement & its interpretation as impartial and accurate as they can.
In real science, your reputation suffers when you have not done enough testing. But in climate “science” it suffers when you do testing, when you do apply real scientific methods and when you then admit data that doesn’t push the PC meme.
With Scotland and Northumbria producing wine for the first time why aren’t you talking about the Medieval Cooler Than The Present Period ?
http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2015/06/mark-steyn-and-grapes-of-wrath.html
Russel, the globe has not warmed for 18 years. Even the temperature dataset which are heavily adjusted do not show the predicted warming. The climate models don’t work, none of the doomsday predictions of severe weather have come true. About the only changes we have seen are a decrease in hurricanes and a general greening of the planet leading to record harvests worldwide.
We sceptics are continually telling you that the climate changes naturally and unless that isn’t blindingly obvious it means it will warm as well as cool. And then after all the evidence that the climate scare is just a cheap scam, you have the gall to come to my blog and talk about wine production.
I know the people who produce “Cairn O’Mhor wine” – they produce fruit wines because the climate of Scotland is not suitable for grapes. But there is one wine that is fit for you and it is banana and fig. They put it something like this: “made from the finest Scottish bananas”
And that is just what your question is: bananas!
Take two glasses of Dalrossach Seyval Blanc ( unchaptalized) and try reading a thermometer instead of horizontal lines drawn by Christopher Monckton .
A hundred vineyards testify that, like it or not, from John O’Groats south , Britain has grown hundreds of degree-days warmer since the Industrial Revolution began.
In 1690 people were dying in the street from cold. In the little ice-age they were skating on the Thames.
The climate varies naturally now as it has always done, and it is only the alarmists who deny climate change.
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I agree it has grown warmer since before the Industrial Revolution, thankfully. I wouldn’t want to live in that climate, and I suspect you wouldn’t want to either truth be known.