I heard about the Greek bail out and as I wrote in “Just as Earthquakes are inevitable so is Greece’s exit from the Euro” it’s pretty naff as I see absolutely no sign of the necessary transfer of money into Greece from Germany.
And like any debtor – giving them more debt will only make the problem worse, so that when they next come to repay – it will be even harder. The only way out of this mess if Greece is to stay in the Euro is to start making regular transfer payments from rich to poor countries. I don’t believe that will happen, because Greece will not be the last country needing this support and Germans are hardly known for their altruism to other nationalities.
So, the big question is when?
It is going to happen sometime – that’s guaranteed. And it’s certainly soon enough for me to feel that I’d like an article predicting it so I can write “I predicted it”.
And if I were in Greece, I’d have most of my money in dollars or pounds or something I could convert back after the inevitable currency shambles like gold. And it’s not just Greece. I don’t know about other states, but if Spain is anything like Greece, I’d be starting to move my money out of the banks (let’s be frank – I’d been predicting a UK banking crisis – but like so many other people I didn’t actually spot it coming and move my money till much too late!)
Two scenarios look likely
- Greeks take one look at the “deal” and tell their PM where to go.
- The deal gets signed, and Greece will be in a bigger mess when the next loan needs repaying. So when is that?
It looks this Greek Eurocrisis occurs almost every summer. That suggests the next crisis will be 2016. And it could be much earlier. Indeed, it will be very very interesting in 2016 because it will be just before the UK votes on EU membership (and who says other Europeans want us to stay!!).
Somehow I think this crisis is coming to a head before the UK votes next year!
Addendum
Just realised that this is a very similar time-scale to the global warming scam. One is denying the reality of economics the other the reality of climate. Both are kept going by massive amounts of belief that it must be kept going. And both will sooner or later come crashing down. But when? And which will be first? I’m going to have to think about that one!
