The SS Establishment hits the Iceberg of public opinion
My mother in law, who although totally unqualified has proven to be just as accurate at the Met Office Long-term forecasts, tells me that “what they get in America, we’ll get in Scotland a few weeks later”.
Unfortunately, that has a worryingly ring of truth to it. So, when I see headlines like:
- Up to 4ft of Snow expected in Upstate New York
- Early Freeze Up For The Great Lakes
- Only Eight States to Dodge Icy Air From Slipping Polar Vortex
I take my mother-in-law as being a better indicator of our likely weather than the Met Office forecast:
But, seeing the Met Office squirm from yet another failed BBQ forecast would be only half the fun. Because the whole UK establishment could be in for a fall.
Political implications
What interests me most is how how a cold snap might affect the UK in the run up to the next election, particularly now that Germany have given up on CO2 reduction via nuclear and opted for coal.
Worldwide, the EU was very much out on a limb as the only staunch supporter of self-imposed energy cuts. But even within the EU, there were fault lines developing with Poland being particularly sceptical. But now Germany has joined the sceptics, the UK are beginning to look more like being out on a limb in the EU, which itself is out on its own.
That is just not politically tenable. But will that be enough to bring down the old establishment parties? Perhaps not on its own …. but …. if there is severe cold this winter, worse with power cuts , the establishment parties will be torn to shreds by the electors who go to vote just after their massively inflated winter fuel bills hit the mats with the establishment parties proclaiming: “you ain’t seen nothing” yet as they prepare us almost uniquely in the world for higher and higher bills ….
It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see that UKIP who are anti global warming non-science and wind, will sweep the floor with the establishment parties. Indeed, because of the UKIP first-past-the-post system, once you start getting seats they come in torrents and a severe winter and power cuts could easily tip UKIP over the edge so that they could be literally forming the next government.
It took me a while to realise just how realistic this was, but UKIP are already doing well. With only a few months left to the general election, the party conference season gone, it’s like watching the Titanic heading toward the iceberg without anything anyone can do. Because … after being so vehemently pro-CO2, its too late now for the estalishment parties to do a U-turn on this … so a clear path has been left to UKIP!
“what they get in America, we’ll get in Scotland a few weeks later”.
We did not last year. I am not saying we will not again this year, or will cold air come over from Russia as it did a few years back? I do not know, but we did not have a winter as such last year because of the cold air mass over America. If it stays put again this year, then we will “enjoy”, or rather endure an everlasting Autumn like we did last time around.
So, is it going to be cold from the West, cold from the East, or warm and wet from the Caribbean this winter? I ain’t a clue. BUT, the Northern Hemisphere looks like it will overall have a damned cold winter.
NB – Just been in Budapest where it was unseasonally warm. No doubt the Beeb will be reporting from there soon… LOL.
Are you denying my mother in law’s ability to predict the climate?
True it doesn’t always prove true, but there’s enough logic in it to make me think there might be something in it. The obvious thing is that storms tend to be funnelled from America across the Atlantic to us. The other possibility is that the “jet-stream pattern” tends to move around the globe. And of course, the other possibility is confirmation bias.
YES, BBC bias!! Half the weather news is missing.
Well, we had glaciers in Scotland up until the 18th century and now we have the start of glaciers in Scotland.
“team of climbers and scientists investigating the mountain’s North Face said snowfields remained in many gullies and upper scree slopes.
On these fields, they have come across compacted, dense, ice hard snow call neve.
Neve is the first stage in the formation of glaciers, the team said.”
That’s interesting about the glaciers. I’ve been up Ben Nevis in the summer and seen ice so it can’t need to be that much colder to stay all year. And then it only seems a matter of time before it’s permanent.