When alarmists like Trenberth start the year admitting that not even all the adjustments made to the surface data will be able to mask the cooling this year – then it really must look like cooling in the data!
But I’ve already predicted cooling! Usually it’s a mug’s game predicting climate because we sceptics know that most of what affects climate is unknown and so the small part of climate which may be predictable is very easily swamped by unknown affects.
However despite it usually being something we sceptics leave to idiot alarmists to do, for a while I’ve been telling anyone who wants to listen that this year is more than likely to see global cooling because three separate (possible) trends are adding together:
- Reduction in sun spots (likely but unclear relationship to temperature)
- 60 year cycle is in cooling phase (cause unknown – but it appears in many records)
- End of El Nino (supposed to be cause of massive rise in 1998 – but similar scale El Nino peaking around now has caused only minor upswing in satellites – which is only reliable indicator of global trends).
Because all three are trending toward cooling this year, it suggests that despite being a minority of the effects driving the climate and whilst rising CO2 may add to temperature (but ever so marginally), the safest bet is certainly for cooling this year. My guess is that the odds are perhaps 60% for cooling 40% for warming.
However, now I hear through Climate Depot that even some alarmists like Kevin Trenberth have realised that there is cooling in the air:
http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/01/20/un-scientist-dr-kevin-trenberth-my-guess-is-that-2016-may-not-be-warmer-than-2015/
This suggests to me, that even this early, the data is starting to indicate significant cooling. In particular – because climate in the US tied to Democratic politics – I suspect, they suspect, that the data will show unmistakeable cooling before the US presidential elections this summer.
Implications
To be frank, the polling evidence is that most people don’t care about global warming any longer and don’t trust these “official” (Democrat) predictions so this apparent “change of heart” predicting cooling will be largely ignored as most voters already know the Democrats have been idiots on the subject.
But, to the idiots themselves whether politician or research – it will be seen as a disaster!!!
However, much more importantly, if 2016 shows significant warming – particularly if the credible satellite temperature drops below the “base” before the El Nino – then it would suggest the recent El Nino was masking a cooling trend and that would add credibility to the apparent 60 year cycle in temperatures.
If so, this makes cooling in 2017-2030 more likely. Indeed, the trend may be even so “extreme” that it is really noticeable by some ordinary people (i.e. real tangible effects – as opposed to imagined effects: leaping on any change that occurs and then falsely attributing it to climate).
I realise that there are thousands of people making very scientific temperature measurements, but are there any widely accepted criteria for cooling/warming?
Unfortunately, your statement is very far from accurate. First there are not thousands – you could probably fit them all in a transit van.
Temperatures are gathered from the surface in the most unprofessional way imaginable (with no quality assurance system as far as I can tell and no validation at all) and then corrupted rather than adjusted by people like those working at NASA who have a clear interest in pushing an environmental agenda (it brings in money for more satellites to monitor the environment”.
As a result, the surface data tells us nothing much at all (except that some people are being dishonest).
The only credible temperature comes from those working with satellite data – so the only honest & credible criteria is whether the satellites show warming or cooling.
i have seen the monitor stations in a black top parking lot
When I first saw these stations I assumed those compiling the records either did not know or were intentionally including them – after years watching the academics who compile these temperatures I now realise that in their (academic) culture, quality assurance isn’t seen as a value and it really doesn’t seem to matter that these stations are not up to standard.