Author Archives: Pict

Vile SNP

Until today Wikipedia, which has articles about the most ridiculously unnoteworthy people had no article about some woman who the SNP falsely decided was noteworth. And even today this is all we get: For the fictional character, see The 39 … Continue reading

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NHS crashes

As expected we have reached, or are reaching, the first critical point where the NHS crashes. For obvious reasons given the failings of the SNP in Scotland, we see it first here: Yes it is! My friend is in the … Continue reading

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The Waiting Game

On the 30th of January I warned politicians that we would be short of ventilators … nothing happened. On the 3rd of March I asked politicians to force medics to wear PPE. (Never in a million years, did it occur … Continue reading

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A plan to beat CV19

Having looked at the modelling of the CV19 epidemic in the UK, there is no viable way to stop the majority of the UK becoming infected long before even the most optimistic forecast of a vaccine being available. All we … Continue reading

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A possible strategy – infect people!

The more I look at the figures, the less it looks possible that any “delay” strategy will have any meaningful effect on the coronavirus except a complete clamp down on all social meetings for about a year till a vaccine … Continue reading

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Coronavirus Forecast Model

After a bit of work, I’ve managed to make my spreadsheet more presentable. It is largely the same as that described in the Scottish Forecast, the main difference being that it now contains two extra sheets. The first “overview” contains … Continue reading

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Why official testing is not revealing community spread

Most cases of CV are mild. So, most people with CV won’t go for testing. But to add to that, even with severe symptoms, most health professionals will not be testing for CV unless there is a “reason” to believe … Continue reading

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Update March 11th

just done some analysis on the latest figures and present UK trend. It is possible that the rate of growth over last few days has reduced (yellow portion). This change is currently very small and could be a statistical blip, … Continue reading

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Scottish Coronavirus Forecast

I have been developing a model to try to predict the effect of coronavirus (CV) in Scotland. I will go through each point. CVModel Disclaimer, I make no guarantee this is correct and it is provided as is, intended only … Continue reading

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Clueless Chief Medical Officer

“Modelling suggests that there will be a a bit of a delay in peaks between different bits of the country … it will not be huge it might be only four or five weeks …”. This is why the UK … Continue reading

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