Looking at the latest global temperature on Roy Spencer’s graph, I was struck how half the graph is warmer than the rest. Zealots usually pick on this and ask “why have 9 out of the last 10 elections days been warmer than they were”, or some other meaningless statistic.
To which the obvious answer is this “because they were”. In the same way that today it is raining – can you explain why, today of all days it is raining? No! So, why expect me to explain why we just happen to have had one of the warmer decades – or why in the 1690s it was particularly cold in Scotland. Things do just happen.
Which reminded me of a quite insane belief in modern western thought that “everything has a cause”. This is not scientific (how could you possibly run an experiment to prove this), it isn’t even really a philosophical idea, instead it is more akin to a religious belief.
And I think it stems from the Christian idea of “original sin”. That is to say, all evil comes from sin, therefore anything wrong is “caused” by human actions.
Turn it around, and get people to believe something is “wrong” like the last decade of warmer temperatures, and people are led to believe there is a “cause” to this evil – which as it is evil, must be human sin.
This causal belief is in sharp contrast to e.g. the Norse or Greek religions. In these, instead of a “you do bad, that causes bad things to happen”. They had the belief that “Gods just muck about and sometimes humans get hurt”.
This is a much more anarchical system of thought. So, under the Norse system of belief “a warmer decade” would be seen as “the gods turned up the thermostat”. But, under the Christian belief system it’s “this ‘evil’ is because humans did something wrong”, or indeed “this ‘good’ is because the high priests did something right”.
Of course, the Christian belief in causality, hasn’t always been helpful to Christian science. So, at times because the fundamental christian philosophy underpinning much of science requires them to have “cause”, scientists have had to invent a “causal” belief system to explain non-causal systems. To name a few:
- Wave particle duality
- Quantum mechanics
- Radiative decay
- Natural variability
- Big Bang
In reality, these are just fancy theories hiding the statement “we don’t know”. Why does light go through one slit rather than the other? We don’t know! Why does the light appear to end up at one place rather than any other? We don’t know. Why does an atom decay when it does – we don’t know.
Under the Norse philosophy or anarchic gods “we don’t know” or “who knows what the gods will do next”, is enough of a reason for anything to occur. But under the Christian religion, things happen “for a purpose”, so everything is “caused” and so a “false god” of causality is created in order that “something” causes things to happen. Take e.g. the Big Bang. The big bang theory is a total load of baloney – and even a casual look at the similarity to the genesis story shows that it comes more from a desire to explain the inexplicable, than any scientific desire to base our views on empirical and tested evidence.
However, it serves a useful purpose, which is to provide an “ultimate cause” for us, the universe and everything. So, when a child asks: “why are we here?” Those needing everything to have a “cause” can say: “because of the big bang”.
So, the “big bang” serves for the Christiano-religion of “science”, a very similar function to Genesis in the Judeo-Christian religion. It creates a “cause” for everything and therefore prevents the need for anarchistic thoughts such as “shit happens”.
But what really is the “big bang” – it’s a bag into which you can put any scientific trash you like and pull out any rabbit you like because not a single person will ever be able to show you are wrong. That’s the hallmark of religion, not science. But no one (at least no BIG-SCIENCE government funded) can prove them wrong – so they can get away with this.
The problem came when third rate environmentalists in white coats, who really had no idea what they were doing, took the same “you can say whatever you like about the cause of things” because “good for science” and started pontificating about the apparent rise in temperature in the 1990s. And being environmentalists, they then went further, and blamed humans and when all the other ‘scientists’ saw how much good PR they were getting for ‘science’ they all jumped for joy and thought “another big bang money spinner”.
And none of them thought through what would happen as actual evidence came in. Because unlike the Big Bang – we get another decade’s data each decade.
Asserting as undeniable science that a small change in temperature was “caused” by humans and then predicting how much it would all change, seemed OK in the 1990s, when no one could prove it wrong, but it’s now with 17+ years of no warming, this god like certainty of “science” is almost certainly wrong.
The point I’m making is not that they were wrong, but that the fundamental problem is that we live in a society which just doesn’t like questions like “why was it warmer in the last 17 years” being answered by “because it was”.
And perhaps if more scientists could accept “shit happens”, we wouldn’t get so much rubbish printed such as the current “50 excuses so far for the pause“.
Because the god Thor turned up the thermostat to have a very long sauna and now Freda is getting annoyed and telling him to turn it down. And then Thor will get angry and just to annoy Freda when it’s her turn for the hot tub … turn the thermostat down.