The reason CV19 was so deadly

Introduction

CV19 didn’t just kill directly although bad enough in itself, there were far more people were killed by the policy response. In a sense, both had one cause: the body (politics) response to the virus, which is to wage an all out war against the virus, but in doing so the body (country) gets trashed by “friendly fire”. But all viruses and other scares have the potential to do that, so why was CV19 so deadly?

The simple answer is that it was deadly, because it by and large wasn’t deadly. To explain, if CV19 had caused a serious infection in everyone who got it, so that 100% were seriously ill and perhaps 20% died. Then the body politic would not only have reacted swiftly but also with the right type of draconian measures. And because everyone was serioiusly ill, it would have been extremely easy to indentify who had the virus, so where it was geographically, and to quarantine those involved. Lockdown measures kill, but when the death rate is very high and the “enemy” is obvious, the deaths can be minimised to those directly at threat.

And, even if the virus had leaked out of the original quarantine area, it would VERY SOON be obvious and VERY SOON contained again. So, there is not the slightest doubt, that whilst a lot of people in the immediate area involved would have died, it would have been very quickly contained and killed off.

That did not happen with CV19 because it now turns out that for every person who has an illness serious enough to see a medic, perhaps 50 to 100 other people have had the virus with either no or  minimal symptoms. Indeed, it may be higher. Sweden is peaking along with most other countries. But early anti-body testing is only picking up around 25% of people with the virus when if it is peaking it should be closer to 50%. That may indicate, that in perhaps the majority of people, the illness is so mild, that the response cannot even be picked up by the testing. This is born out by the total fatality per head of population that is increasingly looking like coming in below 0.1% (the value oft cited for flu). This compares to original death estimates of 1-4%. That indicates that the “medical radar” was only picking up 3 – 10% of all cases.

CV19 is a totally benign virus in the overwhelming not majority, but almost everyone. That made it deadly

Background

CV19 was an ice-berg.

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The insanity of academics

The UK, like many economies, has just destroyed its economy for a bug that was not much worse than flu and indeed, it could still turn out to be less severe than flu.

The insane policy was created by academics, based on untested, unchecked models which the public could not scrutinise. The recommendations were made by academics without the public having any involvement or chance to cross-examine those involved. And the outcome is a total unmitigated disaster which far from saving lives has increased the death count and wrecked the economy.

However, as this is relatively small compared to climate policies, which are also based on the same untested, etc. models from academics, CV19 is very much a dry run for the climate madness. So, for that one reason, it may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Because after the CV19 debacle, there is not a chance in hell the public will ever go along with any academic pushing economically destroying policies based on their untested models.

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The failures of coronavirus

It is now clear that coronavirus has been the biggest public policy disater, arguably in human history, because never have so many governments deliberately shot themselves in the foot, but even if we just consider outcomes and cost, it is certainly the maddest example of utter scientific and government incompetence since WWII (although climate is obviously a strong contender for that position).

Failure to plan

The single biggest failing, was very simple: the government had no viable plan for what was a supposed deadly pandemic, but then, when it turned out to be nothing of the sort, it had no plan for coming out of the greatest assault ever imagined of our human rights.

Two obvous examples support this: when people came back to the UK and were asked to “self quarantine” no one had even thought how they supported themselves. So anyone with a mild cough who had just been on an expensive holiday with lots of photos to show the family – almost certainly ignored the government. The other obvious examaple was the failure to provide home deliveries as a priority to over 70s (what?)

Intentionally keeping the public mis-informed

I put it as strongly as that, because we were denied all the basic information we needed:

  • prior knowledge of intended actions
  • Timescales of likely action
  • Sight of the models or evidence supporting their action
  • The number of patients in hospital
  • A comparison of predicted versus actual

This resulted in a massive panic by the public, because the government were clearly either totally ignorant of what was going on, or worse were criminally negligent. When gov says “there’s nothing to worry about” …and the evidence says clearly there is …then the rational thing is to totally ignore the government and to second guess what is necessary for each individual & family. Indeed, I assumed the panic buying was a deliberate policy by government to scare the population into panic buying. If it wasn’t then they are just the dumbest …

As for one day just announcing that all clubs and pubs will shut … if I owned a pub I would have been absolutely furious because with a bit of forwarning a lot of the economic damage could have been reduced. Likewise for families who were left without a clue about the timescale or intended action of the government.

To put it simply, next time a pandemic looms, I’m just going to assume the government won’t tell us anything and we must just go out any buy everything we might need for a six month (totally useless) lockdown.

Criminal failure to sample test

The key information for planning the response to the epidemic and therefore which would have supported the early end to the denial of human rights, was to know how many people had had the virus. And in order to know that, there had to be sample testing of random people to determing the level of infection at any one time in the population. Let’s suggest that 100 random people are tested a day, then within a week we have 700 tests and we can know to level of infection with a standard deviation of 4%. If we then also determine the length of infection for the ordinary population (by repeating the test), we can determine the total number of people who have had the virus. This then allows us to determine not the “case fatality rate” (those who require medical attention who die), but the far more important total Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). Because the number of deaths is easy to determine if we know the total number with the virus (and when they got it), we can work out the IFR.

If we had done the necessary sample testing, then even by the time the government started their knee jerk policies like closing bars, we may have known that the IFR was nowhere near the 1-4% originally being quoted and was actually around the 0.1% of normal flu. That would have stopped the criminal denial of human rights and the wholesale destruction of the economy.

The other thing this sample testing and early understanding of the very low IFR would have shown is that the vast majority of cases are entirely benign. This explains why the R0 value was about 10 (Not the 2.3 academics told as. The 10 is shown by the way it increased 10x by the peak day of transmission from person to person). With very high levels of asymptomatic carriers and very high contagion, it would be obvious any form of “contact tracing” or “social distancing” would never end the epidemic The end will come, whatever the politicians or pathetic academics say, by herd immunity.

Letting the criminally negligent academics run the country and decide government policy

Academics as a group cannot be trusted to advise on critical timely economically important government decisions. THEY ARE USELESS IN A CRISIS and run about like headless chickens imagining the worst possible scenario. In contrast, people like the army and industry are trained to manage in a crisis. Boris let the headless chicken morons of academia dictate government policy – we let people with not the slightest interest in job losses (because they have secure jobs) throw away millions of jobs for a virus no worse than flu. It happens time and time again and it’s time it stopped.

Criminal disregard for human rights

We have a centuries long tradition of no detention without a trial or at least the evidence being heard and cross examined. Government are allowed to quarantine people who are ill, but to detain people who are not ill was a direct contravention of human rights.

If there was an emergency – then for as long as that emergency exists and no longer – it is possible to justify denying human rights so long as the evidence for the action is available for public scrutiny and challenge. But the emergency was over almost before the lockdown started as we very quickly saw the NHS was not being overwhelmed as had been predicted. As such the legal requirement to lockdown should have ceased and the emphasis should have been on “strong advice & government assistance” to isolate.

In the long run, I think the way fundamental human rights were just thrown away for something that was no worse than flu, will be the biggest concern of most people.

The Selfish generation

One of the most shocking aspects of this calamnity, has been the way I’ve seen NHS staff clambering over each other to try and get themselves PPE, whilst sending old patients with coronavirus to care homes, where the other patients had no PPE. And medics getting PPE for themselvse without a thought for the home helps going around to see older people in their homes, again without PPE so making those most at risk, most likely to catch it because unlike the selfish generations, the old could not isolate from their carers.

Indeed, it was appalling to see medics attacking the government because they didn’t order enough PPE (whose job was it to know whether PPE is needed for a MEDICAL emergency) … not for the vulnerable but for the young and fit medics who I am told did not suffer any more deaths than the general pupulace.

Likewise, to see young fit adults hiding away in their homes scared to come out, scared to send kids to school, when almost no children died and almost no one from their own age group. Whilst they clogged up the home delivery for older & vulnerable people and who was it who was supposed to keep working in the supermarkets, who was it who was supposed to enforce the denial of human rights that they so eagerly sought to reduce an insignificant risk?

Apologies

In that regard, I have to apologise for my own actions in early articles. Whilst I only had access to government stats and my intention was to ensure we didn’t “crash the NHS”, it is now obvious in retrospect that we should never have had the lockdown at all. Instead we should have solely concentrated on protecting the old and vulnerable. I apologise for my part.

SNP

Finally the SNP. What can I say? It became pointless even reading the latest nonsense they came up with. It was just the UK version a week later with unnecessary “scotification”.

They destroyed enthusiasm for the great ideas of community help groups & people volunteering to hel the NHS.

In part that was clearly because, whilst the UK scheme was developed at a time the NHS was thought to need help, the Scottish version was “developed” at a time it was increasingly obvious the NHS had no problem coping. Yet despite knowing the NHS coped, the SNP are now floating the idea of a longer lockdown in Scotland. So, the SNP know the NHS doesn’t have an emergency, they know the only moral basis to deny human rights went away weeks ago, yet they still intend denying our human even longer than the draconian, anti-science bullshit measured of the UK gov. The UK gov response was appalling, the SNP was a lot worse.

If there’s ever another pandemic, the first thing (if not done before) must be to suspend devolution.

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Sweden is peaking

I looked today at the Swedish figure and they look like they are peaking. That is the figures appear to be close to the point where they start coming down again.

Based on that, I would estimate they have as many deaths of perhaps as much as twice as many deaths to go. This puts Infection Fatality rate at 0.06%. If they have protected all the old and we have more or less slaughtered them (by sending CV19 patients to carehomes), then as half the cases are over 70, there may be as much as twice the total cases in the UK. That suggests the final UK figure will be about 0.12% which is at the extreme lower end of ALL the forecasts. That is about the same as flu. That means we obliterated centuries of human rights for a bug about as bad as flu.

The figures also suggests the UK have about 60,000 deaths to go so perhaps 10 -14 days to peak.

Lockdown

Absolutely f-ing stupid. It should have been lifted for  everyone under 70 as soon as we saw the NHS wasn’t having problems. More importantly where we should have focussed the the PPE was not for the singing medics who daily insult us by abusing OUR equipment with the PPE which was supposed to be in short supply, but for home carers and those dealing with the old, not in order not to protect themselves, but to protect the old and vulnerable. But of couse, the selfish generations  were demaning the protection. That’s the generation for whom an absolutely miniscule risk to them means that they will grab the protection for those for whom it was all too often a life ending condition.

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Vile SNP

Until today Wikipedia, which has articles about the most ridiculously unnoteworthy people had no article about some woman who the SNP falsely decided was noteworth. And even today this is all we get:

Louisa Jordan was a Scottish nurse who tended to the troops in World War I. She died in 1915 in Serbia.

In 2020, it was announced that the NHS Louisa Jordan Hospital in Glasgow was to be named after her.

Note, that first line – the article that was there to today, was about a character from the film the 39 steps.

OK, every nurse deserves credit, but this woman clearly didn’t deserve the same credit as Florence Nightingale. I would be very surprised if she isn’t a relative of some senior SNP politician.

Yet again, this is simple anti-English racism by the SNP who can’t even admit that the British army has bailed them out for their utter lack of preparedness for CV19.

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NHS crashes

As expected we have reached, or are reaching, the first critical point where the NHS crashes. For obvious reasons given the failings of the SNP in Scotland, we see it first here:


As they would say on an plane:

BRACE!

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The Waiting Game

On the 30th of January I warned politicians that we would be short of ventilators … nothing happened.

On the 3rd of March I asked politicians to force medics to wear PPE. (Never in a million years, did it occur to me they wouldn’t have ordered the PPE need – Boris even sent a load to China!!)

In retrospect, I totally underestimated the cock-up by the UK government and I should have just ordered a new freezer and filled it with material, rather than listening to my wife who kept asking “where are you going to put it”. Because, not only did the UK & Scottish government fail to prepare, but I then arrived back last night with a freezer load of material and my son who had suddenly decided he didn’t want to stay on his own. And hence another rather speedy shopping expedition to get more supplies (I should have worn my face masks as many others were).

The fridge is now bulging at the seams, the window sills are cramed full of seed boxes, etc. And can you guess what the best thing I got was? 5 bird feeders and a huge bag of seed, which is now the best TV on offer as everyone else is talking about CV19.

Chaning Trends

Looking at the UK figures, the trend has been pretty steady at about 0.26 or a 10 fold increase every 9 days. But if we now look the end of the curve is now marginally below the trend.

Number of reported cases (blue & red) and deaths (yellow) in the UK since the first case was reported.

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A plan to beat CV19

Having looked at the modelling of the CV19 epidemic in the UK, there is no viable way to stop the majority of the UK becoming infected long before even the most optimistic forecast of a vaccine being available. All we can practically do is to try to manage that process to minimise the loss of life.

If the majority are infected in a “wildfire” burning out of control it will come in a wave which like a tsunami will so swamp our health services, they will look like a war zone where doctors are not so much “treating” people, and rationing what little treatment is available so that many people who could otherwise be saved will die.  Does a doctor treat a 60year old diabetic with organ failure from CV19 or a young mother in labour or a car crash victim?

However, there is still a way to beat CV19. Perverse as it seems, we let, even encourage, the majority to become infected, but we do all we can to prevent infection amongst the minority who are most at risk, and therefore most at risk of swamping the health services when they become infected.

This plan needs courage & determination to succeed, not just by younger people who will have to have the courage to take CV19 “on the chin” and carry on, but by older people and those with health conditions, who will need the determination to self-isolate, and then, when it is time they too need the courage to rejoin society and take “their turn” at accepting the potential for CV19 infection “on the chin”.

Because for the vast majority of under 60s, the risk from CV19, whilst significant, is not dissimilar to everyday activities like driving. People can and do accept these risks in their normal lives, however the risk if our society freezes normal life and suffers huge economic collapse is massive and that will have dire consequences particularly for young people. And in any event, even if we wanted to, there is no way we can practically stop most people being infected. So, for the vast majority of under 60s in good health the message should be “carry on with your normal lives”.

However, those over 60 & those with pre-existing illnesses pose a severe threat to our health services, not if, but when they become infected. We need to delay or “ration” their use of the health services until those younger people have got over the virus and are able to keep the country going when the most vulnerable are affected – in the NHS, in pharmacies, in shops and delivery services.

If we can strictly isolate and quarantine those most at risk, we can beat CV19, because not only do we limit the numbers needing treatment, but once enough people in the population get “herd immunity”, CV19 will find it incredibly difficult to take hold in society and the risk to those groups most at risk then goes down so that even those in the high risk groups may be able to regain social contacts with a much lower risk of infection.

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A possible strategy – infect people!

The more I look at the figures, the less it looks possible that any “delay” strategy will have any meaningful effect on the coronavirus except a complete clamp down on all social meetings for about a year till a vaccine is possible. That in itself could kill many people through the economic collapse it causes.

So, I am thinking of a new strategy. If the old is “delay”, this strategy might be called: “advance” or “infect”.

The idea would be to intentionally infect large groups of people and to create a huge group of people who are immune. Obviously, those we infect first would be those least likely to have severe symptoms, so we can let quite a large group of the population get infected with relatively little stress on the NHS (certainly less than a “war zone” stress as it is becoming in Italy). Once the first group have been immunised by mass infection, then we have a huge workforce that should (hopefully) be immune & can keep the economy going, so we can allow the next to get infected, etc.

But who would want to get intentionally infected? Well, unfortunately, everyone else who is not being infected has to be more or less welded into their houses for this period to totally isolate them from the virus. There would be a high incentive to take the risk.

It may seem an odd strategy, but it could dramatically reduce the death rate and allow us to keep our economy going whilst the minority (20%?) who are most at risk of collapsing the health service if they get ill could be kept in strict quarantine for about a year till a vaccine is available (or until the inevitable failures of quarantine mean they are all infected).

However the weekly rate of infection will be much less and it could allow the level to be brought down to something that would be a severe stretch rather than a “war zone” in the NHS.

Key to this working, however, is advancing the rate of infection amongst those least susceptible and most useful to the economy. This is not risk free for them – the rate of death could be 10x that of giving birth. But the rate of death for them could be 10x worse if they get ill when the beds are filled with other people.

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Coronavirus Forecast Model

After a bit of work, I’ve managed to make my spreadsheet more presentable. It is largely the same as that described in the Scottish Forecast, the main difference being that it now contains two extra sheets. The first “overview” contains the key parameters.

If you click on the first box (country) it will display a list of counties and will automatically populate, the population, starting date, and a few other parameters from the list as shown in “parameters”.

CVModel2

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