Coronavirus: estimated Scottish impact


When I wrote this, I assumed that vaccines could be ready in a matter of weeks. I now read in the Daily Mail:

The current record time for producing a vaccine is for Zika, which took academics seven months to go from the lab to human trials.

Doctors fear if it takes that long this time, the unnamed coronavirus could already have swept the globe.

Thus under “should we be worred” section I’ve had to remove anything that suggests we shouldn’t be worried. Especially as there are increasing signs of person-to-person spread outside China.

In early December 2019 a new coronavirus, designated 2019-nCoV,[8] was identified in Wuhan, the capital of China’s Hubei province. In January I started getting odd tweets on the subject and then I started looking into it seriously about a week ago. Obviously what follows are estimates and if you are interested in the subject, I ask you to check them yourself to see if you get similar figures.

Current Situation

There are reported to be 28,000 cases of which 565 (2.0165%) have died. There are now cases in numerous countries with Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, South Korea all having over 20. Person-to-person spread & two deaths have been reported outside China.

Should we be worried?

The answer is yes and no. Unlike SARS this coronavirus spreads rapidly and a large number of people do not have serious symptoms. That may sound good, but it means that it is virtually impossible to stop, because a large number of people will not seek medical attention and be isolated, but instead will continue meeting other people and pass it on. However, the death rate is much lower than SARS and in any case, if it arrives in Scotland, by the time significant numbers have got it, the warmer weather should slow and then grind to a halt the disease … until next Autumn.

However there are reports of a vaccine being produced. But if There is no vaccine, and we do will get an epidemic in Scotland, then and we are totally underprepared. There is no way the SNP could handle it (they can’t even handle cars stuck in a snowstorm). I’m sure the public will get extremely angry with politicians. Continue reading

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The press, the new church & revolution

I was reading some medieval history about the relationship between the Holy Roman emperor and the Church and how the church meddled in the affairs of monarchs, to the extent they literally dictated who they could and couldn’t marry (exhorting a huge price increasing the church power in order to allow marriages).

When, it occurred to me, that that was very much the relationship that had developed in the 20th century between press/media and our politicians.

To explain the analogy … who was it in the medieval period who broadcast the “news”? There wasn’t TV or radio, or newspapers. Where did people go where they might get the latest “news”. The answer of course, was the church, where each week, they no doubt got a condensed version of what the Church considered was the “news” the populace SHOULD hear. Of course, the church put its own moral and POLITICAL views into that news, and they ensured their own financial interests and the continuation of power.

That is no doubt why such things and being “excommunicated” were so effective. The Kings themselves wouldn’t care a damn was some poxy hypocritical pope said, but the church through the power of medieval “media” could distort the public view of their leaders.

And this also explains why the ready availability of printed material was so damaginging. Because the church only had power over monarchs as long as it remained the main source of authority on “news” and “information”. As long as its view was unquestionned by any other authority. And so, as soon as other sources came along, it lost its power.

This I think, is a far better explanation of the loss of power of the Catholic church. Yes, the bible was printed in forms that were readily available to the middle classes, so that they could read it for themselves and decide for themselves what the basis of Christianity should be (hence the split in churches). But I think a far greater problem for the church is that it lost its monopoly on being the authority on “politicall news” – meaning in very simple terms, how ordinary people should view the politics of their day. This is very much akin to what has happened to the press/media today. So, whilst the climate cult is clearly a religious innovation created by the internet, the main changes have been things like the rise of anti-media politicians like Trump and the success of Brexit (against the wishes of almost all the UK media).

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2019 – the year alarmists gave up on science.

Arguing about climate with academics has long turned boring as it’s now so easy to win. It used to take about a dozen tweets to home in on the lack of any science, but 2019, turned that into just one … mention that the press now think climate an expert is a 16yr old uneducated girl and the academics don’t want to carry on! And, I can see their point!

Imagine a chef being told that the press think the greatest food in the world is a Macdonalds hamburger. It shows they are wasting their time and most people don’t care about their “expertise”. What was the point in academics spending years and years inventing all those papers, when some 16year old became a climate expert without even finishing school?

It’s now a sad life for alarmist academics. Sceptics stopped treating their views seriously years ago, but that didn’t concern them much. But now the press have stopped treating their whole subject as a serious academic issue, and started treating it like a comic book. The climate academics are getting a lot of ridicule, or at least cold shoulders from their colleagues in serious subjects.

By turning “climate” into “popular” even “dumb”, fashion, Greta… or to be more exact the people running her … have done more than any sceptic ever achieved: they have made “climate” unfashionable in academia revealing it as the dumbest subject on the planet.

Parallels with Brexit

For years, those like the Biased Corp, Guardian etc., lied to the public about “Britain wanting to be in the EU”. Then along came the internet, the press could no longer prevent the public’s real views from being heard and the end was the Brexit vote, followed by the massive endorsement at the last general election to leave the EU.

The same is true of climate. According to the press, everyone believes in their insane predictions. According to what I see, like Brexit, the majority of the public certainly do not accept the climate cult’s madness. But like Brexit, the political class is yet again massively out of step with public opinion.

And having once got a massive bloody nose over Brexit, I know the political class will not want to take on the public to push insane climate cult policies.

Future plans

Having seen the alarmists shooting themselves in the foot with Greta, I am very tempted, rather than trying to “stop” them, to instead encourage them. What insanity will they dream up next?

Greta, who looked so great at the time, has done huge damage to their cause. And, from what I hear, Extinction rebellion was a flop, because rather than increasing alarm, it instead raised questions amongst greens such as who was funding it and why? And, whilst the alarmists have been focussing elsewhere, we in the UK have got a massive majority for a Tory government.

Best of all, the stupid politicians have all signed up to “do something” about climate. Why is this so good?** Because politicians have been very willing to go along with the climate craziness when there was zero cost to them. But since “doing something” inevitable means huge costs … which means electoral suicide. From now on the stupid politicians will be far from keen to remind anyone that they promised to “do something”.

Instead of “sceptics are trying to stop you … politicians”, 2019, has turned the issue on its head. Now instead of us sceptics being the bad guys, now “the Climate cult is trying to force you politicians” and politicians have started hating them.

If any politician wants to commit electoral suicide by promising to wreck the economy … why do I want to stop them? Climate is now an electoral poision chalice. Politicians can’t just claim to support it, they can’t claim support without doing the “something” they promised, which means immense cost and huge environmental damage which directly hits their electoral support – even amongst the Greens. Having seen how those who tried to push the public to stay in the EU were destroyed at the last election … the politicians will not be wanting a repeat of that on climate.

So, in terms of my own plans, I have to say … with alarmists doing so much through their own actions to discredit their own cult … I think the best thing is to just let them get on with it.

State of the climate

Boring! Because from 2014, we’ve had a series of strong El Nino conditions with no matching strong La Nina to give any indicatino of the long term change in temperature. And because El Nino pushes up global temps, the slightly higher temps can be entirely accounted for by the recent flurry of El Nino. This means that any reasonable person would have to say that there is no meaningful change in temperature for the last 20 years.

The climate has done absolutely nothing for two decades!

There are suggestions the El Nino will go away in 2020, but there have been similar predictions every year since 2016. One would think, with a run of El Nino, we ought to get a deep La Nina, but there’s no evidence it works that way. So, it could be many years before we even get a glimpse of what trend, if any, there has been recently.

Shove me a cryogenic sleep for a decade

If the only thing I cared about was climate, and if it were possible to just sleep for many years, then seriously, I’d be asking to be put to sleep, for at least five years, but likely for a decade so that there is a chance that when I wake up something has happened. Indeed, realistically a decade wouldn’t be much use either, as there is a strong chance that two decades will be the opposite of the third, so I’d want to see at least 30 years of data. But would two decades of cooling end the climate cult? Who are we kidding!! For serious debate on the actual science to even start, we probably need 50 years of data … and that is almost certainly far too little to come to any meaningful conclusion.

So, seriously … I will certainly be dead before there’s any meaningful consensus about what the climate is doing now. So do I want to spend the rest of my life arguing with mindless & often very dishonest numbskulls (on both sides) whether a fraction of a degree change has or has not happened?

**The problem we sceptics always faced, was that academics were extremely left-wing and eco-nutter biased and they got all the funding and sceptics did not. So, for obvious reasons it was an entirely dishonest fight between well funded left/eco-biased academics and the few scientifically trained people like me who for entirely altruistic reasons took them on.

However, when it comes to “doing something”, suddenly the number of experts who aren’t academics increases by perhaps 1000 to 1million times. Because everyone is familiar with the cost of money and instead of 1000s of academics lying about the climate against the dozen or so scientifically literate and honest people like me, we now have 1000s of academics, claiming to be experts on climate”, who now have to claim to be experts in economics, engineers, etc., and who are now going to have to take on the millions in the real economy who are experts in that economy. Now, the public will know academics are not the experts and rightly accept that those outside academia are.

We few sceptics held back the tide of insanity, long enough that there is now sufficient data to show no worrying trends in climate, no increasing costs due to climate. After our work it won’t take a genius to work out that the cost of “doing something” is never going to be justified. The climate cult may still be running, but we sceptics seriously wounded this beast and best of all … flushed it from its cover where it was pretending to be “science” and revealed itself as the rantings of a 16year old scientific ignoramus.

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Waiting for the end of the climate scam

There is no doubt that the climate scam and the cult that pushes it, will come to an end, at least the scam will come to an end as the evidence shows there is no “climate crisis”, however the cult may not so much end, as just morph into somethings else like a Mushroom worshiping cult.

However, climate does what the climate wants, and the soonest we expect to see any significant cooling is approx five years. And, even if the actual climate cools, the adherents of the cult, who think a perfectly normal and very ordinary climate is a “crisis”, still won’t believe it. Mere evidence won’t change their beliefs.

Because the simple fact is that there is not the slightest connection between the “climate crisis” and reality. The “Crisis” is a purely human created myth which neither was created by fact nor can be destroyed by the mere facts. And let’s be frank, the real climate, and real climate trends are about as boring as … I’d say “paint drying”, but as least with paint drying there is a change, whereas our real climate has spent 20 years going sod all.

Indeed, perhaps the reason this mad cult was able to grow up, was because there was so little newsworthy interest in the real climate, that people jumped on the fake climate to create news.

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Climategate in retrospective

10 years ago on the 17th November 2009, some 3,000 e-mails, software files, and other documents from the University of East Anglia Research Unit were covertly released by someone** onto the Internet.

Not long after I created the petition asking for an investigation into the University of East Anglia. Looking back, those ten years, I now realise how gullible I was. I really did believe that when the evidence of academics deluding themselves by fabricating the data on climate was known to the press & politicians, that inevitably the renewable energy scam would blow out.

10 years later, the fact is that the press had not the slightest interest in the truth. Instead, over the years I have watched in horror as they encouraged the truth to be deliberately hidden. The original “crime” of Climategate was some inept academics deluding themselves by changing the data. But Climategate became one of the most blatant cases of official corruption deliberately hiding the truth from press and public. That was done by creating three under-lapping inquiries designed to give the appearance of a “thorough” investigations but intended to allow the main accusations and allegations to slip through the gaping hole that had been deliberately left in the middle.

As for those like the the Biased Corp, a decade ago I thought they were mistakenly on the wrong side. Today, I know they were deliberately on the wrong side. For over those 10 years I have seen them using the propaganda techniques straight out of Goebbels propaganda manual of the big lie. They lie and lie and lie and lie again without any ethical standards and without care at all for science. They have absolutely no credibility on climate and as time progressed, I learnt they had no credibility on a host of other subjects as well.

On the other hand … whilst the academics involved in climate AS A GROUP behaved dishonestly and fraudulently, at least some academics (namely Phil Jones) did seem to learn the lessons of being caught out and did for a while amend their ways and begin looking scientific. So, guilty yes, but guilty of being inept and deluded. And thus, if it hadn’t been for the establishment corruption, the lies from the press and if that recognition of problems had been shared across all of academia, I really do think the scam would have disappeared into history and be largely forgotten by now.

The problem with Climategate, was that the worst culprits were not in the UK where the rumpus was, but in the US. So whilst the UK saw an improvement in standards, that did not last long nor have any profound effect, because their US colleagues, unaffected by Climategate and wholly unrepentant, quickly dragged those in the UK back into the mire.

The result is that the subject of climate has literally been going backwards for the last decade. Because instead of making progress in understanding the climate, the data has been tampered with more and more to fit a non-science theory of catastrophic warming and it is very arguable we know less about how the climate works today than we did a decade ago.

The Climate Cult

However, for all the angst about Climategate, it is largely academic now. For whilst ten years ago, the science did matter, today, it doesn’t matter one iota what the science says. The Climate Cult is now a fully fledged religions with its own 16 year old prophets of doom and martyrs. The cult is no longer based on any science, and so, to be honest, it wouldn’t matter if every climate academic in the world confessed on camera that they had been altering the data and that the sceptics were right, the Climate cult would just claim they were being manipulated by “Big Oil” and return to their crusade with even more fervour.

The irony, is that we sceptics and the academics are now very much in the same boat as the academics are about as impotent and unimportant as we sceptics were 10 years ago. It’s no longer about science, no one listens to the vast majority of academics. They can only watch as they see their subject being dragged into a medieval quagmire the Climate Cult’s religious nuttery.

Historical Viewpoint

Climategate may now be largely irrelevant, but from a historical view, when people in the future look back at the scam, and knowing it was clearly a scam, Climategate is going to be critical. Because without it, people could claim “no one knew”, but with Climategate no one can claim that the sceptics did not make the world aware of what was going on so proving governments have the evidence which should have compelled them to start investigating the corruption properly. Instead, Climategate will show a conspiracy by the British Establishment to prevent the evidence being heard, both by public and politicians. That is not something that is going to be easily swept under the carpet, because it will be one of the key events recorded in all its gory detail that every historian will recognise. It should have prevented the scam going further. It will not be easy to explain how the evidence showing climate alarm was based on delusion was ignored, without facing the fact that there was a criminal conspiracy by members of the establishment.

The original “crime” could be passed of as over-enthusiastic, inept and deluded academics. But the establishment cover up was a deliberate, premeditated conspiracy to deceive public and politicians.

**A few years after the event, on the 1st April as I recall, I stated that I had been involved. Strangely no one believed me 🙂

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The Academic Ape and Political Aggression


Anyone who has been following British politics, cannot but be bemused, by the recent happenings in the UK Parliament. There we have a group of MPs, who having numerous times said they would respect the referendum vote of the UK populace (which was to leave the EU) have voted against every deal* and none, refused to sack the PM or back him, and have vehemently refused to present themselves for scrutiny before the electorate at a General Election. Then, despite having a perfectly good procedure to block any action of the PM (through a no confidence motion) when the PM tried to start a new session of Parliament, which the opposition had long demanded and which was an entirely normal practice, the MPs who had refused to stop the PM themselves, went to the Supreme court who then invented new law to bring back Parliament, where MPs sat around with nothing much to do. Clearly, even the MPs who took the PM to court, had not expected to win the supreme court case, as they had absolutely no plans what to do when they came back!

Against most expectations, Boris Johnson, one of the finest political speakers I have witnessed as PM, managed to secure a new deal from the EU, which appeared to meet the concerns previously expressed by Parliament. But, instead of accepting the deal, the biased speaker of Parliament, who should be an “impartial referee” worked against one side and with a foreign power (the EU) to block the expressed will of the British public to leave the EU.

As a result of their lies about respecting the referendum result and their various shenanigans, the main opposition party’s electoral support has plummeted, and it is now obvious their only chance of any substantial presence in the next Parliament is to allow the UK to exit the EU and desperately hope the electorate forgives them in the two years before the next scheduled election.

Instead, politicians in the UK Parliament, now appear to be much like a wild animal trapped in its lair. Refusing to come out and meet the challenge of a General Election, unable to move from their position, but viciously attacking the public if we dare to express our anger at their behaviour.

Bizarrely, this does appear to have a connection to climate. In this article, I will attempt to explain this. The quite irrational behaviour by our British politicians seems to have parallels in the area of climate and thus climate may explain the current crazy situation of UK politics. And having seen the behaviour of US politicians, this rise of irrational political behaviour does not appear to be unique to the UK. Indeed, given the police brutality now being seen in France, Spain and other places across Europe, it may represent a general and growing hostility between politicians and the public. And, I do put it that way. Politicians versus the people. Although having campaigned in climate, I was used to insults, I was surprised by the vitriolic language used by politicians. We public were called racists, Nazis, xenophobes and bigots, simply for wanting our own Parliament to be in control of our own country.

The Academic Ape

The key to understanding this appalling behaviour by politicians, lies I think, in understanding the similarly appalling behaviour we have seen by academics against climate sceptics. None of us here have to be reminded of the language used. Nor do we have to be reminded of the unwarranted lies such as our “massive fossil fuel funding” (which is particularly galling for those like me who chose to give up paid work to campaign on this important issue). Nor will we forget the vile behaviour such as Lewandowsky who made up accusations that sceptics were “moon landing conspiracists” or Michael Mann who appear to spend all their time in hate filled lawfare attacks on sceptics. But worst of all, I thought, was the appalling behaviour I saw given to several academics. As I was a first hand observer of the vitriol against Prof Salby I can relate these. His “crimes” were 1) to be a professor (which seemed to trigger a particular vicious response) and 2) that he said that at least some of the change in CO2 was natural. An undeniable statement given that the evidence clearly pointed to that, and that even some of those attacking him admitted that CO2 levels changed with the ENSO cycle. The attack was all the more galling, because for this “crime” of telling the undeniable truth, Prof Salby lost his job.

Again, we have a situation where a group in society (academics) appeared to be acting irrationally and were engaged in vicious name calling and totally unwarranted attacks on others.

However, what I found peculiar about the Salby attack, was that although I have written over 1000 articles on my own blog, some which were far more contentious than the write up of Prof Salby’s speech, the only one that had ever drawn such vicious attacks, was the one where I chose to write up the presentation by Prof Salby in a very “academic” manner. (my normal being more light hearted) Why was this? And why was it that some sceptic blogs like my own, had very few attacks, but others like WUWT were constantly under attack?

In particular, why when academics attacked sceptics for just having “blogs”, were they then viciously attacked when they presented work to a journal and finally managed to jump all the endless hurdles to get it published? After looking at the range of blogs & sceptic publications and the behaviour they attracted from academics, whilst academics criticised sceptics for not presenting their work in an “academic fashion”, I had to conclude, that: the more academic the work, the more careful and considered the article, the more the work should have been accepted, the higher the shrill, the more vicious the language, the more sustained the attack on our work by academics.

Instinctive aggression

My conclusion, was that the behaviour we sceptics were being subjected to, was not a rational attack based on the credibility of our work, but something more primitive and instinctual.

I had seen very much the same behaviour before in the field of archaeology. As a non-academic I was part of an online forum consisting predominantly of academics. It became clear that there was particular hostility between “archaeologists” and “metal detectorists”. As I was in neither camp, I could see that neither side was a paradigm of virtue. Many metal detectors have been used to rob historic sites. But, for example archaeologists had previously stripped bare the Stone Henge monument so that if anyone went back today using more modern methods the site is practically destroyed in terms of evidence.

So, it very much surprised me when, as a neutral observer, I spoke up to say that “metal detectorists” were being unfairly attacked, that I then found myself under a vicious attack by young archaeologists. They took extreme dislike that I had “sided” with “the other side (although I had tried to be neutral). And, like the Salby affair, they would not stop attacking, but instead tracked me down to another website and a group carried on the wholly unwarranted attack there (at Christmas). Clearly and quite unintentionally I had “trodden on someone’s toes”. I was getting attacked, not for backing one group, but for being impartial and not joining the attack on the metal detector users.

This bizarre pattern of irrational aggression by academics both in archaeology and climate, appeared to be related. There were many similar features:

  • It was one group against another
  • The stimulus for attack seemed to be work & activity that encroached into “the domain” or perceived “territory” of the other.
  • The attacks were often carried out by groups of younger males (this was a notable feature of the metal detector wars, where older academics & females seemed to egg on the younger males but otherwise took no part in the attacks)
  • It seemed to involve “ritualistic” behaviour. Where one group would form a pack (in climate there were websites where alarmists would gather) and they would hurl ad hominem attacks at the other side. These appeared to have very little relevance to the article or work at contest and were totally out of all proportion to any issues. A lot of noise, a lot of commotion … it reminded me of the behaviour of chimpanzees rushing around and hurling sticks at another troop.
  • Another feature, was that individuals or very small groups would leave the general group holding one “territory”, and then intentionally make a “running attack” on the other and then return to great praise. Again typical of ape attacks where groups stand off against each other and then individuals or small groups rush across to attack the other and then return.
  • Very often the attacking group would spend a lot of time locating the “prized work” of members of the other group, and then set about attempting to destroy it. In this context the way that alarmists spend inordinate amounts of time trying to discredit the academic qualifications of sceptics was bizarre. Also if someone had put a lot of work into a website – even on an unrelated theme – I have seen these being attacked. The more it was “their baby”, to put in the terms of ape behaviour, the more viciously it was attacked. Again very characteristic of apes.
  • The most vicious attacks were directed against those who had or appeared to have changed membership. This was not something I’d read about ape behaviour, but I had seen this “primitive” aggression against “blacklegs” when I was working in a very unionised company.

From the characteristic of the behaviour I had seen in both archaeology and climate and perhaps a few other areas where I have dabbled, I realised that the vicious attacks on sceptics by academics, appeared to be very closely related to those of apes like Chimpanzees and their behaviour in territorial disputes. So the appalling behaviour of by those like Lewandowsky who have no expertise in climate, but joined in vicious group attacks, may have nothing at all to do with what we were saying, instead we were being attacked for “invading” the “territory” of academia.

It seems that Lewandowsky, and so many other academics, with absolutely no idea about atmospheric physics, joined in the attacks on sceptics simply because they perceived sceptics as being “outsiders” invading the “academic territory”. Of course, academics have no right whatsoever to call climate “their territory”, nor do they have any right to keep out non-academics from journals (which should be solely on merit) but they clearly perceive this as their domain. Like any trade union, academia as a group aggressively attacks those who dare to encroach on “their turf”. And the attacks are most vehement against those who “desert” one side, or in trade union terms “the blackleg”.

Political Aggression

Fortunately, in the long run science is settled by the evidence. Thus for all the silliness, despite academics grouping together to “circle the wagons” against reality, the evidence will eventually force them to admit there is no such thing as a “climate emergency”. Moreover, with most of the public sceptical, the costs rising so practical political support disappearing, in practical terms the behaviour of academics in the area of climate is … “academic”. For me, climate is an irritation, indeed a very expensive irritation, but eventually it will sort itself out as academia will be forced to accept the science.

However, if I am right, that the climate wars largely result from the increasing availability of data, knowledge and discussion through the internet, allowing those with an interest in academia to start becoming “internet experts”, then not only does this explain the appalling behaviour we saw in the area of climate, but it may also explain other apparently irrational changes we have seen lately.

Where else do we find a group of people who have hitherto dominated a sphere of activity which was formerly difficult or impossible for the public to gain entry into, but which are increasingly finding themselves exposed to the public?

In politics.

One hundred years ago, politics was an activity that almost exclusively involved two groups: politicians and the press. The politicians claimed what in the UK was called “Parliamentary supremacy”, but is better called “politician supremacy” meaning they were “in charge”. The press likewise claimed their domain: that they were the voice of “public opinion” and as such should be the ones to scrutinise politicians.

Today it is an absurd notion that journalists, who had no idea what most people thought, were somehow the voice of the public, but that is how the press portrayed themselves. Likewise it is an absurd idea that politicians are the “masters” of the public and not our servants. But that is how politicians viewed their roles.

There was a cosy relationship between the two. Political scrutiny was the press’ self-proclaimed “territory”, and through this role journalists as a group became the public arbiter of politics, deciding what the public should and shouldn’t hear and thus the lies that should and shouldn’t be called out. As a result journalists who came from a relative narrow social group, dictated as a group who got into power and as a group politicians came to reflect the politics of journalists.

Likewise the politicians had their domain: running the country was their job. They were “supreme” as the public were almost entirely excluding and even ignored. So, for example, in the UK, whilst the public were always against joining the EU superstate, the politicians thought that as they ran things, they could ignore the public view and turn our democracy over to the unelected Eurocrats.

Until the rise of the internet, the press and politicians kept this cosy relationship where the politicians chosen by the voice of “public opinion” (in the press) ran the country. Politicians tended to reflect the culture and views of journalists and, any politician who went against the view of the journalistic “troop” and raised an issue like leaving the EU, controlling immigration or building a wall, was ruthlessly attacked. With no means to put their own side except through the press, any politician subject to such a group attack by the media would have their views and motives totally twisted in the media to an extent that they were doomed to political oblivion and with them the causes they pursued.

Then came the internet.

The internet provided three things. Firstly it enabled ordinary people to access information such as climate data or the day’s proceedings in Parliament. Secondly it enabled ordinary people to publish information on sites like blogs, so that it became incredibly easy to bypass the press. And thirdly it enabled people from extremely different places to find each other and discuss subjects that had never interested, or had been repressed, by the press. Because the internet gave the public much more freedom to discuss the issues that concerned it, rather than the press as before, this I think is why soon after the internet, we saw a rise in issues that had been hitherto repressed by the media like control over immigration.

This has created a revolution, not just in areas like climate where it enabled the sceptic movement, but also in politics where it would have been impossible for Trump and Brexit to have happened without the internet.

However, just as we have started to see some bizarre irrational behaviour from academia in the area of climate, it is now clear, that we are seeing equally bizarre and irrational behaviour in the area of politics. In both the US and UK, where once, the public (or press) would very quickly accept the result of any vote, we have started to see he anti-democratic behaviour of rejecting the democratic vote. In the US, this became the “Not my president” movement. In the UK it is the “remainers”, who became “remoaners” and are now sometimes called “remainiacs” for their refusal to accept the democratic decision.

Likewise we are seeing politicians in our Parliament, behaving as I said at the start: like wild animals trapped in their lair. I am truly amazed by some of the delusional behaviour I have seen recently, I watched the proceedings in Parliament about a week ago, when Boris Johnson returned with jet lag from the US to face Parliament. After three hours of continuous aggressive and repetitive questioning, an MP, entirely without foundation, inferred he was somehow condoning the death of an MP who was murdered during the brexit campaign by a mentally ill person who happened to support brexit. Boris replied “Humbug” (a type of sweet). It was so innocuous I hardly noticed at the time.

But apparently this “language” (Humbug) so incensed the MPs that they went on the offensive in the press about it. Their total, and apparently unrecognised, hypocrisy attacking Boris for saying “Humbug”, when some of these very MPs had called brexiteers like Boris “Nazis” and “Racists”, was bizarre. It was irrational behaviour, behaviour not dissimilar to academics in climate and other topics when their “area” was “invaded” by “outsiders”.

Can we explain this rise in irrational behaviour by the political elites seen in both the US, UK and probably worldwide?

If we go back, formerly the press saw their role as being the people who should not only scrutinise Parliament, but they also told us what issues to consider and decided which issues the public should not. Likewise, except for the press, with whom the politicians had a very cosy relationship, the MPs were above effective criticism from the public as the public could only effectively critique them through the press who for obvious reasons favoured opinions similar to their own.

Today however, politicians are under huge pressure through social media. Today the press no longer can prevent discussion on topics like immigration control. The politicians & parties who came to power in the age of press dominance are now struggling to cope with the realities of a public who are now far more able to get directly involved in politics through social media.

And, I think it is this mounting pressure, which is resulting in some bizarre behaviour as seen recently in the UK Parliament, and has been going on for some time in the US press and political life with the endless vicious and dishonest attacks on Trump. It can be explained as politicians & the press, having “their” territory “invaded” by the public, who, like the climate academics, are responding in an instinctive territorial way like all apes with insults and attacks ON THE PUBLIC by the politicians.

I will repeat: the politicians are now ATTACKING those who vote for them for invading what politicians see as “their territory”.

In the UK this is causing extreme anger. People have even talked about the army forcing a general election. The politicians look to us like despots clinging to power. It is becoming possible that the overwhelming majority of politicians currently in power will be kicked out in the UK and a party that never existed last year (Brexit party) could be running the country in a few years.

There is now a political crisis in the UK and it is not brexit. Politicians are blaming it on brexit and they think it is something temporary, but I think not. Like climate academics, we are are now seeing a political elite from politicians to judges, who are no longer acting rationally. Likewise there appears to be much the same thing occurring in the US. Likewise throughout Europe, in France we have the ongoing yellow vest protests, in Catalonia the separatists, and in many places extreme concern about immigration. The political class is losing the support of the public and the public are literally beginning to riot. If it escalates much more, it will turn into literal violent revolution.

I don’t claim to have a solution.

All I can say, is that the first stage in tackling the bizarre behaviour of some politicians must be to understand the problem. From my research it does seem that changes created by the internet together with very primitive territorial behaviour are combing to create a very real problem: a growing political crisis in many places of the world marked by irrational political behaviour by politicians attacking their own electorates. We need a solution fast.

*Whilst Boris won one of the latest votes in Parliament, it was then prevented from proceeding.


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Political pass the parcel bomb

I’m coming to realise that politics is a game where people try to pretend that they are doing what the electorate want (who do not all want the same thing) usually whilst trying to push through an entirely separate and selfish agenda.

So, for example, the whole of the last three years has been one long facade of politicians pretending they intend to deliver brexit whilst having no intention of doing so, but also trying to pin the blame for us not getting brexit on the opposition.

So, no one actually wants to be in government, because whoever is in government will get the blame for not delivering brexit. But nor do they not want to be in government, because not being in government means they can’t push through their undisclosed private agenda.

This explains some of the bizarre behaviour we’re seeing. Boris, doesn’t want to be able to govern, because if he could govern, then he would be responsible for not getting brexit. But, nor do opposition parties want to be in government. But they want to blame Boris for the mess, hence the chicken supreme move …. get the court of remainer wantabe politicians to say that Boris was acting unlawfully to try and suggest he’s “anti-democratic”. This however, has played into Boris’ hands, because now parliament has been recalled and he can legitimately say he has no control over parliamentary business and therefore the ones blocking brexit are the opposition MPs. So, the opposition MPs who have seized power, now desperately want Boris to get the “veneer” of power back so that they can blame him for not getting brexit -whilst quietly stabbing him and brexit in the back.

This is quite bizarre. The more remainers grab control of parliament, the less they can blame Boris for us not leaving, so the more they take the blame for their backstabbing of the EU exit. So, the less room they have to back-stab brexit. The more power they have, the more powerless they are to stop brexit without incurring the wrath of the people.

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MPs: be careful what you demand – because you’ve now got it – but for what?

Today a group of people who in a democracy have one vote like the rest of us, a vote denied us by the treacherous MPs in parliament, decided that they wanted an early say on Boris Johnson’s premiership, whilst the rest of us are denied one. Of course, the judges are complete arseholes if they think it’s not obvious what they did was entirely political. Obviously these mini-dictators have to be put in their place, but that can wait.

Because what on earth are all these MPs going to do to justify this urgent recall to parliament that they could not have done during the last three years when they have sat on the benches with their thumbs up their arses intentionally blocking brexit by voting down every deal, no deal and even two elections?

The simple thing is that they’ve already dismissed every conceivable action … so all that is left is nothing. These morons have all but destroyed the credibility of parliament for what? To sit again on the same benches with their thumbs up their arses blocking any way forward.

All they have done is given Boris a massive boost. Indeed Labour and Illib Anti-dems have not so much lost 30 points at the poll as thrown them away.

The only strategy left for Labour and the illibs is to hang on desperately, refusing an election and refusing a no-confidence vote in the utterly insane belief that the public will begin to support them. In the utterly insane belief that having delayed and delayed Brexit and so put the UK parliament into stagnation so that nothing else much can be done, that somehow the public will thank them when these scumbags eventually allow us to vote on their behaviour.

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Greta – the last desperation of the alarmists

For those of us who are sick to death with a mentally disabled girl with no knowledge of climate science being paraded on the TV like a puppet, what we need to remember, is that the only reason they have a child, is that children can lie with impunity whilst an academic could not. And it’s because only someone who is totally ignorant could claim there is any issue with the climate that they need someone totally ignorant to front the scam.

Put an actual scientist on the TV, and ask them about severe weather, and all they could do is umm and err because they know there are no trends to support the scam. Put an actual scientist, and they know the surface data temperature is not credible and the satellites show next to no warming.

That is why they need this ignorant brainwashed kid. Plausible deniability: no one expects her to know what she is talking about, so she can & does say total rubbish that no one else can get away with.

However, the very fact they are now resorting to such extreme measures is an indication of their desperation. The scam is falling apart, it is hanging by its fingertips. We are now in a La Nina period where we expect a return to cooler temps and so for at least the next five years the threat of (non fiddled) rising temperature has disappeared.

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Natural Variation

Natural Variation

Of all the many issues that confuse climate researchers, natural variation, or as they in error call it “error” is one of the most important. Indeed, the very name “error” from “to err” etymologically related to “erracy” or heresy, shows that they have a black and white view where there is (believed) “truth” and “error” which is quite unscientific.


To explain the problem with the concept of “truth” and “error”, it is best to start by using a simple analogy: When is heat not heat?

Most of us understand the concept of heat as the random movement of atoms or molecules. So, when is this random movement not heat? Let us suppose that we take a single atom at the energy equivalent of 1K (or a suitably low temperature) and we arrange for it to impact into a hot gas (1000K?) such that it hits one atom and loses all momentum and therefore has no energy and an equivalent temperature of 0K. What is also clear is that if this is “heat” then a colder body at 1K has warmed a hotter body of 1000K.

The atom at 1k was moving in a way that was indistinguishable by observation from that of a gas at 1K and this cooler “body” warmed a hotter body in contravention of the laws of thermodynamics. How?

The reason was that although the atom was indistinguishable by observation from an atom in an ensemble at 1k, it was distinguishable by definition. Because we had defined the system in a way that was not an ensemble of random atoms. Heat is not a physical property of a system, instead it is property determined by the system definition – and that definition must define the system in such a way that we do not know the individual energies (or at least apply our work to the whole ensemble). For “work” and “heat” are not different forms of energy. Instead “work” is energy which can be quantified completely, whereas “heat” is energy which is randomised in a way that its specific physical form or distribution is unknown (or treated as unknown).

To use another example. IR energy is often referred to as “heat”. This is because we often experience the “heat” of the sun via IR. So, in layman’s terms “heat” can refer to IR, but from a point of view of physics, IR is not heat any more than kinetic energy is heat (the energy of moving atoms is kinetic) . Yes, in a hot gas, heat is present as both kinetic and IR energy which is moving both within the gas and back and forth to any container. So, the IR within the gas is “heat”, but, if we expose the gas to a non-randomised energy source from outside in the form of IR, then whilst the layman might call this “heat”, and whilst it may be indistinguishable from internal IR, the applied energy isn’t heat but in thermodynamics terms it is “work”. Likewise, if we create a window from the ensemble to the outside, whilst the energy comes from heat, in thermodynamic terms it is work being done by the heat on the environment.

Natural Variation

Natural Variation and heat are similar concepts, in that they do not exist as a physical entity, but exist by virtue of the definition we apply. To see what this means, let us take a simple system whereby we measure the height of the sea.

Let us suppose that the height we measure at a point in time is 3m (above a convenient datum). Now let us suppose we take another measurement 1hour later and the height is 3.5m. If we use a simple model of our system which says that sea level is constant, then the “natural variation” is 0.5m. In other words there exist variation that has perturbed the system which is not accounted for by a model by 0.5m. This is NOT an error. We can reasonably say that any error in measurement is much smaller than this. Instead, this is a discrepancy between our model of the system and the system which includes variations that are naturally present but not present in our model.

However, if we used a more complex model, which include tides, then let us assume the tidal model suggested that 1hour later the tide should be 4m. Now, with a reading of 3.5m, the natural variation is not 0.5m but -0.5m. To say “natural variation” is what we don’t know or even worse “an error”, is patently false, because anyone who has ever seen the sea has a fairly good idea what is likely to make the sea precisely one hour after the first reading slightly different from our tidal model. The answer is waves. We know they exist, but unlike the regular rise and fall in tides, the exact height of the sea surface 1hour ahead would be almost impossible to know (unless we were considering something like a tsunami and even then not exact).

However, if instead of 1hour, we chose a timescale of 1-10sec. Then given the pseudo regular behaviour of  waves, we would have a fairly good chance of a reasonable model of the height of the sea surface at a particular location. As such waves exist in an in-between world whereby in some circumstances (short periods) they can be modelled in a fairly precise deterministic way. But as the time increases, the ability to predict the precise height of the water disappears, whereas we still know the amplitude of variation.

And by analogy, there are many other forms of variation from the atmospheric swell that occurs when low pressure causes sea to rise, land uplift or sinking, to instrumentation noise, which can all be modelled to a greater or lesser extent, such that depending how complex our model for the system becomes, the “natural variation” can be reduced till it is almost negligible.

So, natural variation certainly is not noise, and it certainly cannot be “averaged out”. For part of the natural variation in sea level height is the long-term change in sea level due to the rebound from the last ice-age.And over longer periods we might also include tectonic plate movement etc.

Natural variation is not an entity, it is not an error, it is instead the expected variation that occurs because our model for the system will not perfectly match nature.

Climatic Natural Variation

Like sea level, temperature changes for a host of different reasons, some easy to model, some impossible to model and some that can be modelled over limited periods.

The obvious changes which are relatively easy to model are the change from day to night and from summer to winter. These follow relatively predictable behaviour. The changes that are difficult to model are those over very extensive time periods such that the arrangement of continents have changed the behaviour of the climate in a way that cannot be understood or tested (we only have one earth) or indeed solar changes (due again to lack of understanding about long-term behaviour). In between are various pseudo modellable behaviours from that of weather fronts which can be modelled over a period of days or even weeks to oceanic cycles like El Nino, which have known effects, but cannot be predicted with any certainty even within a single cycle.

But again, what is considered “natural variation” depends on our model. We may, for example, talk in terms of effect on geology of the “natural variation” in temperature. In this context, it does not matter whether the variation is day to night or summer to winter, or frosty day to cloudy. The rock does not care what causes the temperature change, only that there is change. But when predicting weather for the next day, now we model the behaviour of time of day, time of year and the effect of fronts and air movements. Now “natural variation” are the parts of the climate that our weather models cannot or do not include. In part these are complexities that escalate like the butterfly effect. In part they are instrumentation error or variation that exists due to the discrete nature of the weather stations such that they cannot measure the exact position of fronts etc.

But, like waves on the sea, these weather fronts can be modelled over relatively short periods, but over longer periods all we know is that they perturb the temperature from an average, but on any day a long time ahead, we couldn’t hope to predict whether there will or will not be a particular high or low area at any particular place. Thus whether these weather systems are considered “natural variation” or not, is highly dependent on the time frame. It’s the same physics, the same physical process, but depending on what we’re trying to model they may or may not be “natural variation”.

Likewise, El Nino. Again, depending on the time-scale, whilst we know the scale of the effect, we may or may not be able to model even the sign of the effect on temperature at any specific time in the future. However, El Nino is just one of many many, dare I say, an infinite number of such “cycles” in the climate. Cycles that could over some periods be predicted, but over long periods can not. Thus even, if we were to exactly model El Nino, the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and ALL the major ocean perturbations, there will still exist natural variation consisting of those minor perturbations which we have not been able to model. Likewise, the effect of solar, the effect of clouds, the effects of meteors, of animals and humans affecting the climate though changes to vegetation. Geology in changing sea levels, in changing the height of mountains, of volcanoes, etc. etc.

Natural Variation is not noise that can be cancelled

Natural variation is not a “noise” that can be cancelled out by a long series of measurements. The “noise” of slowly hydrogen slowly leaking from our atmosphere does not “average out” by taking more and more measurements, because the “noise” is a trend. Likewise, the effect of the changes that occur due to the ice-age cycle cannot be “averaged out” by a lot of readings …. at least within one human life time. Instead it would require millions of years of data. Likewise the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation takes around lifetime, but there may be much longer cycles still to be discovered that even if we average for a whole life-time only appear within that lifetime as a trend.

Instead, natural variation is what we have not (yet?) included in our models. Some of that may be known variation, which is predictable in amplitude and the exact change but has not been included. Some may be variation whose scale is known, but not its exact amplitude at any time (some distance into the future). And other is variation which neither the scale nor amplitude is known, but instead we can see its affect as a variation that cannot be otherwise explained.

Truth and Error

Often when climate academics talk about the failure of their models to match the physical world, they use the term “error” to account for the failure. This concept is taken without consideration from that of laboratory science. In laboratory science the intention is to create a controlled experiment where the behaviour can be controlled so that it very closely matches theory. As such the concept is that the experiment should behave according to theory except that there is always instrumentation “error”which causes the exact readings to vary from theory. As such the “error” is in the readings and not the theory. In addition, it is usually assumed that instrumentation error can be averaged out (even though long term drift is always present). As such the “error” is a mistake of what is being measured, which tends to zero with more measurements. It is not a mistake in the model.

In contrast, the climate is not a system that can be modelled with any hope of accuracy. As such the variation between the model and the real world is not due to a failure of instrumentation (even if part is), instead it is due to natural variation: the discrepancy between the real world and the model. That is the model of the climate misses out many key factors that prevent it modelling the earth’s climate and as such if the concept of “error” is relevant is is that the error is in the model and not the measurement. As such, what climate academics refer to as “error” includes many things that could be modelled like cycles (El nino), trends (like the 1970s desertification of the Sahara) & one off events (volcano) which in theory could be modelled (historically) but not in the future. But there are many smaller perturbations that whilst smaller in scale are present in such numbers to cause significant change which through their shear number could not ever be totally modelled. As such, even if the known variations were included there would always exist an “error” in the model.

As important, many of these variations are trends (or at least appear trends over a human life-time). As such the concept of “averaging out” to remove them does not work. As such the climate models will always be in error both due to cycles and trends. However, also the instrumentation readings will also have “error”. What then is the “truth”?

“Errors” of global temperature

Behind the idea of “global warming” is the concept that there is a “global temperature”. There are serious questions about whether there is any meaning to this this term, but as this subject has been widely discussed, I will not cover them again. Instead I will just take that there is a “global temperature”. This might be supposed to be the “truth”, but how does this “truth” match to physical measurements? In order to do this, a model has to be constructed of how station temperatures respond to this “global temperature”.

But now there is also natural variation present between this “model” and the theoretical construct of a “global temperature”. Again, the concept of an instrument “error” is often used to refer to the believed difference, which presupposes the idea that like instrumentation noise, the “error” in estimating global temperature can be “averaged out”. However, there are huge systematic changes in temperature, such as urbanisation which cannot be averaged out. And there is introduced trends inserted into the model such as “time of day” changes which account for almost all the perceived warming.

And here is where the terminology of “error” is particularly confusing. Is the warming trend added onto the global temperature due to believed changes in “time of day” of measurements an error, or is the error in the original data? In the US this change accounts for all the warming since about 1940. Does this mean the original data is “in error” or is the modelled global temperature with this added trend “in error”?

The problem is that “error” implies that there is a truth and this does not work in this situation. To illustrate the problem, what is the “truth” if we look at the probability distribution of radio-active decay? If the average is 14 counts, is a count of 10 “in error”? Is it an error to only get 1 count? It may be highly improbable, but it will happen, and when it does it is not an “error”, but instead part of the natural variation.

The problem with “error” is that it the inference is that one thing is in error from another which is “true”. In contrast “natural variation” is a concept that only says there is a difference.

This makes it easier to talk about variations. If our model is that all stations respond equally to global temperature, then “natural variation” is a term for instrumentation error (+ errors in this model). If however, our model is that all stations respond to global temperature, urban heating and time of day changes, then “natural variation” is a term for the variation of calculated reading from a theoretical concept of “global temperature” which includes instrumentation error, errors in assessing “adjustments” and error in the model. We don’t need to know whether the model or the readings are “in error”, because natural variation exists whether the readings or theoretical model are correct

Predictive, measurement models and “truth”.

In the climate, we have models, which for simplicity we will use on with only variable (e.g. global temperature). But a predicted model is not the only model.We also have a second model which is how global temperature is constructed from instrumental data. These would correspond to an laboratory experiment on radiation that for example radiation drops as the square of the distance (predictive model) and that radiation can be measured by the average (measurement model).

However, there is also a third conceptual model. This conceptual model is of the “true” global temperature. This is why the measurement model can be said to be in “error” with what is believed to be the “true” value of global temperature – even when this “true” value cannot be obtained. In addition, the predictive model is also in “error” with this “true” global temperature.

However, what is this “true” global temperature. The actual global temperature is actually several thousand degrees because the bulk of the earth below the crust is very hot. Even if we take the “true” global temperature to be that at the surface, does this mean the air just above the ocean or the ocean itself? Because as anyone who knows about wet & dry bulb readings will know, the temperature of a moist body is not the same as the surrounding air. Even if we take the reading at 10m above the surface level, does this mean 10m above the tree canopy? Even if we define it to be the ground, does it mean with or without radiant effect of the sun? And even then, does it include of include the heat from human activity? And even if we pin down the definition, how do we cope with the numerous places where there are no readings?

This is why trying to define a “true” global temperature and then defining anything that fails to represent this “true” reading is not a helpful approach. It implies that there are “errors” from the “true” value, which by its nature cannot ever be measured and so cannot ever be proven.

Instead, we can model something that we call “global temperature”. And we can use this “global temperature” as something that we attempt to predict its behaviour. It isn’t the actual “true” global temperature, but we can at least assess the “natural variation” that exists between predicted and measurement models. This is something that can be assessed, it can be measured, and so unlike “error” it is something that is scientifically testable.

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