This started as a Christmas discussion and when I went to look, I could not easily find anything on the physics of ice roads. So, I thought I’d try to work out some of the basics from first principles and a bit of guess work.
Let’s start with an assumed 10tonne vehicle. If we assume the density of ice is 9/10 of normal water, then if 100tonnes of ice is pushed down into the water, it will support the weight of a 10 tonne lorry. If we then assume the ice depresses by 10cm (which seems a lot), then the area that is pressed down is around 1000m² or 31 x 31m..
If I were to guess, I’d say that typically ice sheets break so that the length is around 10x the thickness (total guess!!). If true that suggests that the ice needs to be at least 3m thick to produce slabs over 30m x 30m.
However, lorries don’t sit on the ice, instead they drive over it. And indeed I’ve seen rules that say “don’t stop on the ice!!” Continue reading
For around 20 years I have campaigned on the climate, trying to convince the numbskulls in government and academia, that the minuscule change in temperature that science predicts cannot in any way justify the destruction of the modern fossil fuel economy which has created so much good.
But modern academia seems to hate the modern world, and used every possible trick in the book to dream up reasons based on climate to destroy the modern economy. And as China benefited most from that insanity, and there were suggestions China was involved such as the 28gate meeting that set it on its anti-industry crusade, somehow I always felt China was responsible for that insanity.
So, it was not that surprising when a flu bug originating from China, the like of which we had seen on average once every decade over the last century, became the next reason to destroy the modern economy and push back against the modern world. Continue reading
As the above graph shows, the rate of death in the UK, remains stubbornly within the normal range of deaths we expect at this time of year, despite supposedly 400 or 500 dying from covid and many extra deaths happening from all the cancer, heart, kidney, etc patients whose diagnosis was missed when the NHS was insanely shut down.
How has this happened? The reason, whilst already patently clear from those who understand anything about the failure of the PCR test, was underlined this week when Spanish researchers found that around 87% of people in hospital who supposedly had covid, turned out not to have it when retested and something like half of those with the most specific symptom associated with covid (lack of taste) also turned out not to have it.
It has been blatantly clear for some time that we are in the middle of a false test epidemic. I think this could be caused by a combination of over-cycling the test together with a similar bug which is close enough to covid, to lower the noise threshold for a false positives so that the over-cycling then almost always causes a positive. That means an entirely benign bug could be triggering the supposed “covid positive” results. That could mean that we are actually seeing is an epidemic curve for a very widespread but entirely harmless bug. So many people have got this “sniffle” that by pure chance, a large number of people who die, also had the sniffle. That causes a positive test result for “covid” and when some die, those are recorded as “covid deaths”.
There is no health emergency, there is absolutely no reason to take any special measures and the illegal detention of people in their homes is not only illegal, but totally pointless.
This is the biggest scandal
in the entire history of science.
The rise of printing in Europe(c1450) changed the control of information, such that within a relatively short time, the power of those in control (church and monarchy) was under severe threat and eventually collapsed leading to the rise of the modern world.
However, printing also created a delusional phase where, for example, because people started printing on the subject, it became widely believed that there was a problem with witches. This is analogous to the present situation whereby a fairly common virus has been turned by delusion into the insane belief that it is an end of world killer plague.
The witch delusion heralded in an age of revolution which led to the widespread end of monarchy in a series of sometimes very bloody revolutions. Thus it seems possible that we might to some degree be able to start to predict this internet revolution. My assumptions are as follows:
- Printing in Europe invented 1450
- First leader to send emails in 1976
- The witch crisis hits a peak in 1650
- The covid delusion is 2020
- The age of revolution is 1650-1800
On this basis, we can see the internet revolution is occurring a lot faster than the printing revolution.
Relative speed = (1650 – 1450)/(2020-1976) = 4.5x
From this, taking 1976 as the start of the internet revolution and 1450 that of the printing revolution(s) we can work out the age of internet revolution will be approximately:
2020 – 2053AD
Of course, that is assuming that the covid delusion, is the one and only delusion. Another scenario, is that the covid delusion, is simply the first of a whole series of delusional episode, which then makes the internet revolution(s) a more extended period.
Trump the warm up act
We are now heading rapidly toward the end of the covid scandal and so I was wondering whether those who had killed so many people through the lockup, the denial of medical treatment & their obsession with a (profitable) vaccine would ever acknowledge their guilt.
The nearest historical even I can think of is the delusion and hysteria that occurred when books started being printed about witches. That led to mass hysteria witch 🙂 led to the loss of many lives. Eventually, some people realised it was hysteria (which is the good news), but what happened after?
The best indication I have found is the aftermath of the Salem witch trials:
Aftermath of the Salem Trials
After the prisoners awaiting trial on charges of practicing witchcraft were granted amnesty (pardoned) in 1693, the accusers and judges showed hardly any remorse for executing twenty people and causing others to languish in jails. Instead they placed the blame on the “trickery of Satan,” thus freeing themselves from any sense of guilt. Jurors and townspeople also managed to maintain a clear conscience by claiming that, after all, many victims had confessed to their “crimes” and that the Salem, Massachusetts, community had been tricked by the devil. Yet families who had lost loved ones and property during the trials were expected to go on with their lives as if nothing had happened. Their attempts to regain social standing and receive financial compensation through formal legal channels took several years.
Over the weekend, it became increasingly obvious from the total lack of comment on twitter about any protests, that they are now 100% blocking certain subjects, people and indeed, in some cases I have been left wondering if they are changing the tweets or even totally replacing them with more acceptable propaganda. I presume the same is happening across most social media.
We all know that almost everything now being done is illegal under human rights and that this autumn is about as normal as we can get because covid is not a particularly dangerous bug now and fewer people are dying than we normally get at the peak of the winter.
Fortunately, when government resorts to censorship, it only shows to the public, that it knows it cannot win the argument.
Bizarrely after the UK ineptitude (not government) announced a recklessly rushed through “vaccine” which apparently is so pathetic that it’s not going to change anyone’s life if they take it and so dangerous that vaccine companies demand immunity from prosecution for when it goes wrong, far from the expected anger or delight, instead the reaction was resigned humour.
It’s almost as if people were thinking: “what the f does it matter what they do now, when they’ve already done so much to us in such an appalling way”.
What changed? Well, for one the weather has! And as all the shouts and screams of kids out in the snow yesterday proclaimed, normal behaviour has returned because of the snow. Likewise, fewer and fewer people are having time to panic about covid as they start panicking about Christmas.
This couldn’t have come at a worse time for the feardemic-mongerers … because they don’t really have a vaccine, and quite literally there is no time between now and Christmas for even the worst fearnumpties to be bothered with a vaccine even if they could start churning it out. And by the time we all stop eating and drinking and making merry, most people will have forgotten why they were afraid of covid, their brainwashing will be reset by the return of normality and by mid January, when people might be receptive to a new wave of brainwashing, there simply will not be the covid cases or deaths to create the fear.
Game Set and Match!
This post is trying to explain the main features of the epidemic as shown in the following curve (and the contrast between deaths in countries with lockup and not)
- As the log vs. time curve shows, the epidemic either is increasing or decreasing in straight lines, meaning exponential increase/decrease and these DO NOT RESPOND AT ALL to policy changes
- That the only other significant feature that can respond to policy is the turning point
- That countries that locked up like the UK, Spain, Peru have a MUCH HIGHER death rate than countries who do not lockup.
- That there was an (apparent) second wave
Bizarrely the problem here is not the lack of effect of policy – because it’s very easy to explain why masks didn’t work, or why anti-social policies like distancing had no effect (people ignored them), the problem is explain, BOTH how policy had no effect on the rate of spread of the virus, but also massively increased deaths.
I set out in “Lockups kill” a plausible explanation of why lockups tend to increase deaths in that they increase the fraction of social contact which is with vulnerable people who are far far more likely to die. But that requires that policy has an effect on how the virus spreads, whereas, the straight lines, which do not change as policy changes, appear to show that policy has no effect.
This obviously needed some kind of explanation.
In Lessons from Lockup I have summarised what we should learn from the insane government response that killed so many people and so wrecked our economy. Unfortunately, except for saying “it should never happen again”, and “those responsible should rot in jail”, there is not a lot we can benefit from now, as hopefully, it will be a long time before anyone is so stupid again.
We are now at a position, where the “second wave” is peaking with almost no appearance as excess deaths, meaning that this is a pretty normal autumn in terms of infectious diseases. As such, the emergency is over, the human rights acts now take precedence over any silly covid legislation, and we can legally go about our normal business ignoring the huffing and puffing of politicians.
But, the question now, is should we, as a society, now just say “it’s over everyone just return to normal”. Because I don’t think it may be that easy. The problems are: Continue reading
We are now at a stage, where more and more people are accepting that the second “wave” is amounting to not much at all as it barely registers as any excess deaths. And with multiple signs of it peaking, those who look at the data are no longer scared. But what now?
Lockups increase covid deaths