The rise in Scotland’s death rate (shown below) has been in the news today. Given what I have been saying about the possibility of ADE developing, could this be an early sign?
Let us first look at the UK figures on which I have drawn some trends I have spotted for some time: Continue reading
I’ve been looking at figures today and it now looks as if Scotland, having had two peaks this autumn, is now starting to climb up again to a third. I believe this is a pattern of repeated epidemics and as such I can project this pattern forward.
This has not happened in Wales, England nor N.Ireland where the pattern of infection is much more complex and hard to understand. In Scotland we had (positive test per day):
It clearly looks as if the scale of the epidemic is doubling with each peak with about two months between peaks. This suggests that the next peak will be around the 4th of November with 13000 positives a day. Continue reading
Today I realised that the death rate in the UK, after being flat, had shown the first sign of going up. It now joins rising covid positives and hospitalisations on the way up.
Throughout the epidemic, I’ve always had an idea what was coming next, even if I didn’t fully appreciate the scale, because the epidemic got worse, then got better. It’s now very different. The level of infections has been fairly high and constant for some time, so that now almost half of all positive tests have occurred since the latest “epidemic” started (about August). So, this latest rise, is a rise on top of an already prolonged high. Moreover it is the end of a long trend of rise (since end of July).
I literally do not know what happens next … because the epidemic has stopped behaving according to any model I have of how an epidemic should behave.
Basically, all I can say is:
But, what really worried me, was seeing that the epidemic, which had already spread to some areas in this current epidemic had spread again to the same areas. Yes, I was predicting multiple small epidemics so that areas were being reinfected, but I had hoped I wouldn’t see it, because that really seems to indicate seriously failing immunity. But maybe it doesn’t!
Immunity is failing, but there is insufficient evidence as yet to say that ADE is the cause.
The rise in all figures makes ADE more likely, but I think the worst case scenario of ADE is less likely than I originally thought. In terms of trend … inertia will keep the current trends going for a week but beyond that, but for the first time, I have no real idea what will happen next.
I’ve looked at the worst case scenarios, which are that up to 100% of those who had any jab will die and/or that substantial numbers will become too debilitated to work.
However, there is one big difference between ADE in the lab and ADE in a real population. And that is when lab animals get a vaccine, they are then exposed in a controlled way to new viruses. So there can be a long time when they don’t get exposure. In contrast, humans get haphazard exposure and unlike the lab animals, in real societies, the amount of exposure increases if there is falling immunity. That may be a very important differences if ADE is starting to occur.
The typical epidemic curves are shown below:
This is my current thinking … which I suspect is more likely to be read by the Chinese than our own government, such is the stupidity of those who currently hold power in the UK.
I started by assuming that 25% of people would get infected and only 50% die. In retrospect, neither of those can be supported as a worst case scenario. The worst case is approaching 100% of those who had the jab. Nor is that the worst case, because an even worse case is that a large number of those who took the jab survive, but are then unable to look after themselves and/or that the entire resources that could go to aid the survival of those who are left, gets diverted fruitlessly, by the jabbed, for the jabbed.
The worst case scenario is that single digit percentages survive. That might be a low probability scenario, but that is now a realistic worst case.
The purpose of looking at the worst case, is to plan for a scenario which creates a huge problem, so, although it is a remote possibility, the total risk is significant compared to more likely scenarios.
But, in this case, either all the decisions have been made (mass jabbing), or the juggernaut brainwashed mindset is already on course to calamity and there is nothing that can reasonable be done to stop it (the brainwashing of the public to accept the concept of the jab as a “saviour” makes the mass jabbing of children inevitable and it cannot now be stopped by anyone like me). Nor is there any reasonable way to prepare for that eventuality in the time available.
Despite the fact that ADE is a significant probability, I have found that the “experts” are totally arrogant about their knowledge that it won’t happen … and when challenged, they cannot defend that. Instead it’s the old trick of “unless you can provide incontrovertible evidence beyond any shadow of doubt proving not just that ADE can occur, but how it occurs … then you have to believe me (the arrogant expert)” … when they can not produce any evidence that it will not occur. We are now latched into the groupthink “ADE cannot occur”, and these “experts” will not budge from that view, until they have incontrovertible evidence that it is occurring … and even then, they still won’t believe it, let alone take it seriously, for some considerable time.
Once government and the experts have the mindset that the jab is some saviour, all scenarios will be interpreted as evidence that more jabs are needed. More deaths means more jabs needed.
My basic conceptual model for the response to a civilisation ending scenario is one of slow “ending of normal function” punctuated by the odd event such as a mass strike of police refusing to confront the public.
I think covid shows, that people are most panicked by a low risk event. So, ironically, I think that one of the strongest social responses would be to a relatively low level of ADE. My reasoning for this, is that if we look at the soldiers in WWI & II, we see that despite horrendous stress, they were able to cope, I think because the risk was obvious and the way to avoid the risk was also obvious. In contrast, if people hear ADE is happening, they will have no idea of the risk nor any appropriate response. The headless chicken phase is a desperate attempt to find a meaningful response to a serious life threatening risk and, once people understand the risk, even when death seems inevitable, they are more able to cope with that if they know what to do.
The only caveat to the eventual die down of the headless chick phrase as the real risk becomes tangible, is that if large numbers of ADE deaths occur, people will be desperate for a “cure”. That will occur at a point when most people have lost faith in the experts … so people will desperately try “cures” both official and unofficial, with no real certainty over what they are doing. So, there will be repeated headless chicken episodes where some cure or other is claimed and people desperately try to work out what to do.
Children are the future … but there could be large numbers of orphans with no easy way to look after them. Even if every child of a jabbed parent is jabbed, children have different immune systems, and it is not necessarily true that the same will happen to them as their parents. But …
Bizarrely, because of the weakened immune response of older people, it is possible that they do not suffer from ADE to the same extent as younger people. Indeed, if an auto immune response, it might be the elderly that survive where the children do not.
The politicians & their self-appointed “experts” are obsessed with jabs. It is very likely that their response to increasing deaths FROM THE JAB, will be that they attempt to force jabs onto every one who has not had the jab. In that atmosphere, any attempt to dissuade them will fail. It will be a cult-like response from them … we cannot question the saviour of the jab. Indeed, given the incessant media brainwashing … any attempt to change the mindset of the majority of the public will also fail. (Deprogramming cult members takes many months)
By the time the futility of forcing jabs on people cannot be denied, it will be too late to so anything.
As such, there is no reasonable prospect of changing the course of this calamity until after it is happening. Even then, the power will reside with the jabbed, and they will take resources and future prospects away from the unjabbed for themselves. That will not change, except in the very worst case scenario where the number of “working” jabbed fall below that of the unjabbed, which is likely around 70 to 90% deaths.
So, although there are many possible scenarios with lower death rates, there is no actionable plan that can be put into place in the face of what will remain throughout most of the calamity as an overwhelming dominance of the jabbed.
Under the worst case scenario, the UK will be highly susceptible to foreign invasion and take over.
No current actionable plan at a society level
Common sense has not been listened to despite it coming from the most respected scientists. When the headless chicken phase sets in, there is no reasonable prospect common sense being heard until the evidence is so overwhelming that … and then it is too late.
But there are things that we can each do to improve our & our immediate family and social groups own survivability, even if there is nothing we can do for society in general.
I’m trying to envisage what would happen if ADE develops in order to try to understand what opportunities might exist to improve the outcomes not only for me, or my immediate family, but for society in general.
This is proving an extremely difficult task, because not only is ADE extremely poorly understood, so estimates of deaths range from 0.1% right up to 100% of the jabbed, but also there is no historical precedent for the death of 10s of millions of people in a modern society – so we have no idea how society will react to this horror. And, indeed, the circumstances of self-inflicted mortality supposed to “save” people are truly bizarre and they must be a one off.
Unfortunately, almost everything written about such literally “end of civilisation” ending events is utter rubbish. The authors base their ideas of disaster movies, and disaster movies are written to have a lot of action. But, the reality of actual mass deaths, is that people don’t do a lot … they don’t behave like the movies… there is no mass uprising or mass violence … they simply struggle in simple ways to survive.
But, despite the difficulty envisaging such an appalling scenario, I’m starting to have some concept of what the world will be like if ADE develops.
I’m using ADE to mean any effect whereby those who took a “vaccine” end up being more susceptible to the virus. That is a problem for those who took the genetic therapy (falsely called vaccine) for covid, because in animal studies developing a coronavirus vaccine, it appears that most or all of the animals died within 2 years from ADE. And, to make it all much worse, not only doesn’t anyone have a very clear idea about the mechanism, but they skipped the necessary trials for the covid therapy to see if it would happen and they appear to have no idea how to treat it, if it does occur.
I would suggest, the risk of covid ADE developing due to the therapies, is akin to walking across a busy road with a blind fold and ear muffs on. If you were over 80 with multiple relevant health issues then, yes, perhaps it might have been the right choice to take the … I almost called it “death therapy” … because to be blunt, the life expectancy of an over 80 with health issues it already bad, and even a very bad decision about a covid therapy does not massively change that prognosis. But if you are under 50, and especially any child, then it is just insanity!! And even if ADE does not develop, we MUST prosecute those who took the insane decision, not just to allow children, but to FORCE them to take this appalling therapy.
Above is the latest graph of positive tests in the UK. The important thing is that it can be clearly seen that there was a spring 2020 epidemic where tests clearly rose and then clearly fell as immunity to that variant reached the level for community immunity, an Autumn 2020 epidemic, then a spring 2021 epidemic. In each of these cases, the number of people testing positive virus grew exponentially and then declined exponentially. This fits a model of community immunity, which is the level of immunity which causes a virus to tend toward zero in a real community, where interactions are not random. This is a lower level than “herd immunity”, which is a theoretical model of wild animals with no social memory and so randomised interactions. Or as I put it, a man in such a society has as much chance as sleeping with his wife as with the PM.
Once community immunity is reached, three things can trigger a new epidemic:
Which, brings me on to the present. As can be seen, the UK in general saw a typical rise of positive tests in July. This was almost certainly due to the arrival of the Indian variant, which bypassed previous immunity … but also has a much lower death rate. However, the very worry aspect is that whereas every previous epidemic rose to a peak, then dropped away exponentially, the latest peak did no such thing. Instead, we now see a continual background level of positive tests which clearly shows a change in behaviour.
Looking at the available statistics, it appears that this ongoing trend is created by a number of smaller, more localised epidemics which have occurred in Scotland and now Wales as well as the north of England. The first thing I have to say here is that Scotland and Wales are still being mad about covid. And, to my eyes, it appears that this insanity is only INCREASING the spread**.
However, the important thing is the change in behaviour away from nation wide epidemics, to smaller regional ones. To my eyes, this looks like the pattern of outbreak we get in wild fires … where fire tends to burn the areas which have not recently had fire, but they miss areas that have recently had fires. So, this is what occurs, when something is steadily increasing the susceptibility generally (brush growing), but the pattern is affected by previous epidemics (so a repeat of the same Indian variant).
So, it appears that immunity and/or susceptibility is increasing. This could be because of:
It is now approaching a year since the very first people got their covid therapy. Whatever interpretation we have for the series of mini outbreaks, falling immunity seems to be occurring, so we would not expect to start seeing signs of ADE until now. And, the lab animals died when immunity dropped and within 2 years. So, the critical period would appear to be this and next winter. If ADE does not develop by spring of 2023 … society has managed to walk across the busy road and peak hour blind folded with ear muffs and will appear to have got to the other side without mass die off.
However, the first condition to suggest ADE is developing … which is repeated smaller outbreaks indicating lowering immunity has occurred.
The next condition is that the rate of infection amongst those who took the jab falls at a rate either reaching or suggesting it will reach a stage whereby those who took the jab are more likely to be infected than those who did not. There is some evidence from a small sample of Scottish deaths, that this has already occurred.
The next condition, is that the higher rate of infection/death in those who took the covid therapy, cannot be explained in other ways … in particular, those who took the jab first were the vulnerable who were most likely to die in the next year. Because there was a delay of many months between the first vulnerable groups, and those far less likely to die, a high death rate amongst those who got the covid therapy, cannot be translated into “ADE is developing” unless we start seeing large numbers of healthy middle aged people dying … and only those who took the jab and that may take another six months. Unfortunately, we just aren’t being given the data to tell us if this is happening (which is in itself highly indicative that it may be happening … because if it weren’t happening, they would be happy to publish the data!)
This leaves the final condition: that the susceptibility to repeat infections from covid continues to increase. Unfortunately, coming into winter, we already expect an increase in infections, so how can we tell the difference? The only real difference, is that if ADE is not occurring, then we will see another drop in the level of infections down to zero, but if ADE is making people more and more susceptible, we will continue to see a background level of covid infections … with repeated local epidemics … but whilst sometimes lulling, in general I expect an overall increasing level of severity … over the next year. But, that could be confused with a new variant … so … to put it simply, I went to visit my own family and make peace given the real possibility, that we could be in a new lockup soon which could develop into the worse tragedy in humanity.
On, the other hand … it might not … but like the comet that passes the planet of the caveman and nearly wipes out humanity … they’ll never know how close they came … and they wouldn’t believe me even if I told them.
The animal studes were for more deadly strains of coronavirus. This might be good news, as it might mean that the coronavirus needs to be a lot more deadly than the covid-flu, to cause mass die off. On the other hand, if ADE effectively turns off the immune system, then even very benign variants could become deadly, which might mean that covid is just as deadly as the animal studies.
The next thing, is that I’ve heard nothing about anyone trying to treat animals that developed ADE. So, it is possible that there are very simple treatments that reverse the process. But it is also possible that there is none.
Covid was almost exclusively a killer of the old with multiple conditions. As such we might expect ADE to be most deadly to the old with multiple conditions. However, bizarrely, it could be the reverse: that the old with failing immune systems, don’t get the effect, whereas the young do.
Hence my analogy of walking across a busy (and fast) road. We either get off Scot free (and largely ignorant of the huge risk taken), or we could get walloped by a broadside with no chance of most people surviving. Or … anything in between. ADE might just appear as a slightly higher death rate, which no one notices until they do proper research after the present brain dead people who led us into this terrible situation are long gone.
**I suspect what is happening is that masks are catching large droplets of mucous that would fall rapidly onto a surface, and instead the droplets are drying on the masks and then the movement is causing the dried mucous to break apart into an incredibly fine dust which is ideally suited to going straight through the pathetic masks which people wear day in day out.
For a while there has been a theoretical possibility that rather than reducing deaths, that the jab would lead to a condition known as Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE), which makes it more likely that someone who has been given the jab, will not just be infected by covid, but that the infection could be much worse than without the jab.
To give an idea of the seriousness, I am told that in lab trials, which were skipped for this jab, around 50% of animals got ADE and died.
Many commentators are now suggesting that the rise in infections and deaths in Israel is an early indicator that the jab is causing ADE. I have no way to know whether this is so, but it is clear that the available stats could be interpreted as supporting a hypothesis that ADE is present and that it is growing as an issue.
Most concerning, is the silence from the UK government and media on this possible situation. That indicates to me that they have been told to keep quiet, and therefore that the UK government is treating it as a real threat.
It has been suggested that providing a “booster” shot could stop people getting covid and therefore stop them dying. However, it has also been suggested that a further booster shot will compound the problem. This post is subdued, not because the situation isn’t serious, but because there is no effective action that I can recommend.
This is my own analysis for my own use: WorstCaseAnalysis20210902
If anyone like me visited Germany in the Decades after WWII, and met ordinary decent Germans, the question that could not be answered is this: “how did these people end up supporting a regime like the Nazis that ended up killing so many people in such horrific ways?”
The answer, if we believed the likes the left wing extremist BBC (Biased Brainwashing Cult), is that it was “all the fault of the Tories”. Or as they put it “Nazism is a form of Toryism … that occurs when Tories start doing things that the Biased Cult don’t want like wanting out the EU (the German utopian vision!)
But, if socialism was so good, why were the German National Socialists – the official name of the Nazis, so bad? Surely, if politics played a part, the natural conclusion seeing the atrocities of communism (the left) and the German National Socialists, is that all types of socialism is bad.
The problem, as I now realise, is that the whole narrative of WWII as portrayed by the biased media was totally distorted. The Nazis were not evil because they were left wing, and certainly not because they were right wing. Instead, they were evil because that evil was allowed to develop within their society irrespective of how their politics was mapped onto British parties by the biased reporters of the Biased Cult.
I thought it was time to have a think about how this covid debacle will impact climate.
Whilst a lot still remains unclear, what we can now say with confidence is:
We have for years, been lied to about the climate in the same way that for the last year anyone watching the Biased Brainwashing Cult, was lied to about covid. We were also told that this period was “exceptional”, by people who refused to compare the present period with known data from the past, but who like covid, chose a very short period of comparison in order to fabricate a scare.
Likewise, we have seen appalling models, that failed to work on numerous occasions become the basis of eye wateringly expensive government policy. And like covid, the “science” – or what was pretended to be science – has been repeatedly wheeled out to fool the gullible.
First lesson, is that despite the lies and deceit from those like the Biased Brainwashing Cult, the science eventually shone through. Admittedly, those who jumped on the covid bandwagon are still very tentative in their acceptance, but it is clear that they have very little option other than to accept that lockups did not work, etc.
Second lesson, is that it takes a lot of time for the science to show through. I knew covid peaked naturally in April last year, but some very good academics are only very slowly coming round to this point of view.
And, the third less: what happens when the public find out. Now that is an interesting question, because the vast majority of the population are still totally unaware they were taken for a ride. Indeed, it is possible that the politicians etc., will try to stop them learning. But as they say: when in a hole, stop digging, and the politicians and those establishment “scientists” who pushed the lockup are in a massive hole already.
Whatever happens about the public perception of covid or climate, the simple truth is that we in the UK can no longer afford the climate stupidity. And, moreover, I don’t think anyone is every again going to accept the words “trust me I’m a scientist” ever again. Indeed, it may be closer to “You’re a scientist – which means you’re a totally gullible fool”, is far more likely and realistic. I can’t think of a simple parallel to “just three weeks to flatten the curve”, … followed by a year of flattening the economy, health, education and freedoms. But if anyone tries that kind of lie of climate … they’re not going to find a gullible public now.
But, it needs time. My bet is that the reaction against covid and climate, may now follow much the same path: an initial gullibility, followed by a very long and slow slip of credibility, followed by …. well we are yet to see how strongly the public react when they find out how much its all cost and how much they have been lied to. And that phase will take longer on climate.
